Much has been written in recent years about proxy wars. At its core, a proxy war is when one state – or a group of states – goes after its rival indirectly. Instead of fighting itself, it backs another actor that does the actual fighting. That support can come in many forms: money, weapons, training, intelligence, logistics or political backing. The proxy is often a non-state armed group, a militia or a rebel movement. What makes it a proxy war is that the main power tries to influence or fight its rival without going to war directly.
Iran extended proxy warfare further than most by building and backing a growing network of armed partners across the region to confront its rivals indirectly. Hezbollah is probably the clearest example: it grew into both a powerful military force in Lebanon and a political player, all the while acting as a key piece of Iran's regional strategy. Iran has done the same with armed groups in Iraq, Syria and Yemen.
Afghanistan, of course, was also supported by the U.S. during its war with the Soviet Union. Washington backed the mujahideen groups operating inside Afghanistan, with al-Qaida being, in one respect, among the groups that assumed such a role during the Afghan war. Later, the U.S. used al-Qaida, in one way or another, in the context of its interventions in Afghanistan, Iraq and Yemen.
Proxy warfare subsequently entered a new phase as Iran effectively supported and strengthened various groups in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.
But as the world moves toward what some describe as a World War III, proxy warfare has begun to change form. Ukraine, in a sense, is fighting Russia as a willing proxy of the Western states. The U.S. and its Western allies stand firmly behind this proxy, and Ukraine receives it consciously to defend its country against an aggressor, as Russia attacked in the first place.
The irony is that Iran, which had long fought Israel and the U.S. through its own network of proxies and used Hezbollah and other forces to keep the Syrian regime continuing, now finds itself serving as a proxy for the Eastern camp – Russia and China. This striking change shows how proxy warfare has expanded in scale, to the point where a former proxy boss, like Iran, is now dragged into the proxy roles of larger powers.
The U.S. is not entering a direct war of its own with Russia. Washington and Moscow are not fighting each other directly. Yet the U.S. and its allies are engaged in a broader confrontation with Russia in Ukraine.
Likewise, China is not fighting the U.S. directly. But as Iran confronts the U.S. and Israel, China and Russia stand behind Tehran as powerful partners. North Korea might also be part of this chain of alliances.
This is one way of reading the growing proximity of a World War III. Whereas smaller militant groups once represented the proxies of great powers, today countries with substantial military and geopolitical weight, such as Ukraine and Iran, increasingly take that role. While the entire West stands behind the Ukrainian front, the East stands behind Iran.
Looking at this course, we can say that before a major global war, proxy warfare itself has moved up a class.
