Foreign interference is destroying Sudan, with some shadowy external forces trying to acquire natural riches and geopolitical influence in one of Africa's most significant countries. The aims pursued by these forces in cahoots with local militia clients are outright criminal and based on a winner-take-all strategy. These elements appear unmindful of the unmanageable humanitarian catastrophe they have created in the nation of 48 million.
An estimated 10 million have become refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs), struggling to survive in worsening human conditions. Sudan's waves of refugees have the potential to cause destabilization beyond the immediate region.
Sudan needs an effective central government to contain the conflict and improve the humanitarian situation. If the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) led by Gen. Abdel-Fattah al-Burhan significantly subdue the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, who is better known as Hemedti, peace and reconciliation can begin in earnest.
Egypt and Saudi Arabia have high stakes in Sudan as the country borders the Red Sea, the Sahel region and the Horn of Africa. More than others, these two countries should make pragmatic moves in Sudan based on real interests rather than be influenced by meaningless ideological perceptions.
Saudi Arabia's relations are determined by certain core interests, including Islamic values, Arab heritage and geographical links. Economics is important, too, but not an overriding factor when basic political and national security interests are involved. In Egypt, security, economic, financial and political interests are paramount. It is natural for Saudi Arabia and Egypt to be alarmed over the Sudan strife, but it is in their own interest to work with other influential players who share their concerns.
Since the internal power struggle went out of control in April 2023, Sudan is facing the danger of getting trapped in an intractable conflict. The country's central authority declined sharply when President Omar Hassan al-Bashir, the strongman who held power for 30 years, was ousted by the military in April 2019 amid street protests against his rule.
There was always an orchestrated Western campaign to weaken al-Bashir through the Darfur conflict in western Sudan. The bloody local conflict also saw the rise of the RSF militia and its commander, Hemedti, who is now challenging al-Burhan. Hemedti's ambitions were not satisfied being al-Burhan's deputy in the Sovereignty Council set up after al-Bashir's removal.
Three decades is a long period to develop institutional mechanisms, but al-Bashir could not contain internal disputes within manageable limits. Constant U.S. hostility, sanctions and anti-Sudan Western schemes played a part in weakening him. Western Christian fanatics were particularly active against him.
Al-Bashir, who acquired power in 1989 after overthrowing the civilian government of Prime Minister Sadeq al-Mahdi, oversaw some seismic events in his political career, including South Sudan's split in 2011. Sudan cannot afford another division or a prolonged violent conflict.
Civilian leader Abdalla Hamdok, who was named prime minister to manage the transition after al-Bashir's exit, could not continue in his position due to insufficient authority and the power struggle. He was removed from office in October 2021, then given back his post a month later, but finally resigned in January 2022 as the power struggle hindered him in performing his duties.
The role of foreign players has come under growing scrutiny since April 2023. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the mercenary Wagner Group linked to Russia are mentioned as the backers of the RSF. Wagner became famous as a backer of Libya's rogue general Khalifa Haftar, who also enjoyed Abu Dhabi's support.
Sudan's permanent representative to the U.N. in May 2024 accused the UAE of interfering in the country's internal affairs by "providing the Rapid Support Forces with arms, supplies and logistics, to wage a war of aggression against the State and to commit a crime against the peace and a breach of regional and international peace and security." The UAE, on its part, denied the allegations, calling the accusations "spurious." It emphasized its humanitarian help of tens of millions of dollars via the U.N. and other agencies to support civilian victims of the conflict. A statement by the UAE mission to the U.N., issued on June 27, 2024, addressed a number of past serious allegations made by Sudan. It said the allegations "regarding the supply of arms and military equipment are part of a duplicitous media disinformation campaign by the SAF."
The UAE's political statements leave no room for doubt that it considers Sudan to be represented by two factions – the SAF and RSF – rather than the internationally recognized Sudan government. That is the crux of the matter and puts the UAE on a course of confrontation with Sudan's military.
Cease-fire attempts and peace talks, including those initiated by Saudi Arabia and the U.S., have made no meaningful progress.
The capital, Khartoum, has been wrecked by fighting, forcing the government to use the city of Port Sudan as its hub of administration.
The Sudan government cannot let warlordism prevail. Decisive moves against the RSF would require Saudi and Egyptian support. Turkiye should join hands with Egypt, Saudi Arabia and other willing partners to restore order in Sudan. Such a move is likely to be backed by the U.S. because warlordism in Sudan would ultimately create serious regional security challenges.
There is one certainty: Instability and violence won't bring the material gains and influence so desired by those impatiently plotting Sudan's capture.
