Ankara's Turkmen kinsmen often find themselves in the spotlight when their rights are undermined in Iraq, but nowadays the stakes are different. Iraqi Turkmen have gained momentum in the country's multi-ethnic city of Kirkuk after a governor of Turkmen origin was elected after almost a century.
Considered a bridge between Türkiye and Iraq, now the Turkmen can spread this achievement to the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI), benefiting from both the Kirkuk impetus and Ankara's growing clout in the country.
There is no reason why Turkmens in Irbil and Sulaymaniyah in the KRI cannot build on the success achieved in Kirkuk. However, Turkmens in the KRI also have a role to play in making this happen. There is no doubt that the potential continuation of Turkmen gains will also strengthen Ankara’s influence on the ground.
The election of Ankara-backed Iraqi Turkmen Front (ITF) leader Mehmet Seman Ağaoğlu as Kirkuk governor under a rotational model in mid-April was indeed a key deal made with the Sulaymaniyah-based Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). In fact, Ankara’s long-strained ties with the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) over the PKK issue have recently begun to improve, and bilateral relations are steadily recovering. As a positive result of Türkiye’s peace process, Ankara lifted the ban on flights to PUK-controlled Sulaymaniyah, and the city hosted a PKK disarmament ceremony.
Furthermore, the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has also led some Iraqi actors to reconsider and restructure their alignments. Traditionally maintaining warm ties with Iran, the PUK is one of these actors, seemingly seeking to balance its heavily Iran-leaning posture by taking steps welcomed by Ankara. The Kirkuk consensus was largely shaped by this dynamic.
In this context, the ITF-PUK deal in Kirkuk cannot be considered independently of Türkiye’s growing influence in Iraq. It is safe to say that the momentum gained by the Turkmen in Kirkuk, combined with Ankara’s increasing strength in the country, is likely to create greater opportunities for the Turkmen living in Erbil and Sulaymaniyah in the KRI.
The Turkmen population is estimated to be between 100,000 and 400,000 in Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP)-controlled Irbil, while a few thousand Turkmen live in the Kifri district of Sulaymaniyah. Turkmens in the KRI are traditionally known for their close ties with the Barzani family-led KDP. This is because the Turkmen population is largely concentrated in Irbil, and they are politically aligned with Ankara’s warm relations with the KDP. The Irbil-based party has also enjoyed relative dominance over the five Turkmen quota seats in the KRI Parliament for several years. In return, its close ties with the KDP have enabled both the ITF and other Turkmen parties to hold ministerial positions in the KRI Cabinet and secretary roles in Parliament.
However, the influence of the KDP and PUK over Turkmen politics has begun to shift in favor of the PUK since the quota reserved for the ethnic group was reduced to two seats in 2024. Following the October 2024 elections, there is currently one Turkmen lawmaker quota each in Irbil and Sulaymaniyah, aligned with the KDP and the PUK, respectively.
With the KDP and PUK now equal in terms of quota advantage, and the PUK having gained momentum through its cooperation with the ITF in Kirkuk, the Talabani family-led PUK has an opportunity to win over Turkmens in Erbil and Sulaymaniyah if it takes further steps.
Keeping this in mind, winning over the Turkmens in the KRI is crucial for the dominant parties, as it creates an image of them as protectors of ethnic and religious groups, facilitates relations with Ankara, and is vital for parliamentary arithmetic, particularly in view of the possibility of an early election in the KRI.
Any potential steps by the PUK toward the Turkmens in the KRI could also create competition for the KDP to make similar moves toward the ethnic group. Whether the KDP and PUK grant Turkmens key positions in the new KRI government or posts within city and district governing bodies will be an indicator of this potential competition.
On the other hand, the Turkmens in the KRI should consider the achievements of their kinsmen in Kirkuk as an example and take steps to promote unity among Turkmen parties and increase public participation in politics. Given that the ITF failed to win a single seat in the last election in the KRI, the Turkmens are in urgent need of reviving political mobilization within the ethnic group.
In doing so, Ankara’s growing leverage on the ground and the potentially successful implementation of Turkmen governance in Kirkuk are key facilitating factors. Undoubtedly, the gains made by the Turkmens in Kirkuk, and their potential continuation in the KRI will provide greater advantages on the ground for both the ethnic group and Türkiye.
