Although both Finland and Sweden have a policy of never joining any alliance since the Ukraine crisis erupted in 2014, being in Russia’s immediate proximity has confronted them with difficult questions such as “should Finland and Sweden join NATO?” Sweden remained especially concerned about the Russian provocation surrounding Gotland. Before the current invasion of Ukraine, Russian officials repeatedly warned NATO that its eastward expansion designs and plans to include Sweden and Finland in the alliance will have serious consequences. In late February, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova cautioned that “it’s quite obvious that Finland and Sweden joining NATO would have serious military and political consequences that would require an adequate response from the Russian side.”
With the Nordic region included, tensions are mounting between the West and Russia over the Ukraine war. The West blames Russian President Vladimir Putin for his territorial expansions into Europe, and in turn, Putin is unhappy about NATO’s expansion. The message is clear: Both the West and Russia are on a collision course over seizing natural resources and securing hegemonic projects. While the West seems ready to defend its “values,” Russia is unwilling to make any compromise on its plans to secure its global influence and rights to natural resources.
It was circulated on Twitter that Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that “if Ukraine falls, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia will be next. Then Moldova, Georgia, Poland ... (Russia) will march to Berlin Wall." Far from expansion in the Arctic and the Baltic regions, Russia also refused to rule out the possibility of military deployments to the Caribbean to attain its goal and Putin reached out to leaders opposed to the West. Furthermore, the Russian military has revamped and modernized a string of Soviet-era military bases across the polar region. Many analysts are expressing concerns over Russia's possible expansion into the Baltic states. According to Fox News senior strategic analyst, General Keane, “several senior officials inside the Pentagon clearly believe that we are in the dangerous period here, and certainly, the risk of expansion is really true.”
U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken warned that “we will defend every inch of NATO territory against aggression coming from anywhere at any time. Our commitment to Article 5, an attack on one is an attack on all, is Iron Clad, and no one should have any doubt about that.” In contrast, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said “we have every right to take a matching decision and impose an embargo on gas pumping through the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline.” Currently, Russia is “slapped with 5,000” plus sanctions, surpassing sanctions on Iran, Cuba and Venezuela. Now, every passing minute brings bad news from Ukraine. As Russian invading forces increase attacks in the country, debates are shifting to new discussions: Who’s next after Ukraine?
Since the start of the Ukraine crisis, more Eastern European countries, including Finland and Sweden, are in line to join NATO. Western countries including Sweden are providing weapons to the Ukrainian resistance forces and sending volunteers to fight against Russia. The U.K. and several other European countries, including Germany, are encouraging and backing their citizens to go and fight in Ukraine.
Western sanctions, the freezing of assets of Russians abroad, embargoes and in turn Russia’s warning of cutting Europe’s gas supplies would affect everyone in the world except the powerful elites. Any aggressive policy or move in the Nordic region would just be another case of turmoil that could shake world politics. ABC News rightly asked “What is Putin’s endgame?” and “How the Russian invasion might come to an end.” Let’s hope for peace.
