Three years after the start of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, discussions about potential negotiations to end the war have dominated headlines in recent weeks. Leaders from around the world have outlined their ambitions and red lines for a future peace agreement.
This week, during a joint news conference at the White House, U.S. President Donald Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron discussed the "progress" made in peace talks concerning the Russia-Ukraine war.
Meanwhile, a Russian delegation arrived on Thursday at the U.S. consul general's residence in Istanbul for U.S.-Russia talks aimed at resolving disputes over the functioning of their respective embassies in Washington and Moscow.
Without a doubt, a new chapter in the Russia-Ukraine war has begun since Trump returned to office for his second term, the dynamics of the conflict have shifted. In a post on his social media platform, Truth Social, Trump wrote:
“Think of it – a modestly successful comedian, Volodymyr Zelensky, talked the United States of America into spending $350 billion to go into a war that couldn’t be won, that never had to start. But a war that he, without the U.S. and 'TRUMP,' will never be able to settle.”
Trump argues that the U.S. is pouring money into Ukraine with no return. But, it now appears that the U.S. is poised to receive something in return.
On Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will visit Washington to sign a deal on rare earth minerals. Trump claims that the agreement ensures the U.S. will recover its financial investments and benefit financially in the future. However, on the topic of a peace deal, Zelenskyy emphasizes that continued American assistance remains crucial. "Strength is needed on the path to peace," he stated.
Previously, Zelenskyy had found himself excluded from peace talks. While he has expressed openness to negotiations under the right conditions, his demands – such as a Russian withdrawal and accountability for war crimes – remained unmet. Additionally, Zelenskyy had been hesitant to engage in mineral deals with the U.S.
As a result, both Ukraine and its European allies have had to reposition themselves. Seeking to maintain relevance on the diplomatic stage, Zelenskyy traveled to Türkiye a week earlier. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan aims to play a pivotal role in future peace negotiations with Russia and in shaping a new security framework for the region.
Throughout the war, Türkiye has maintained open diplomatic channels with both Russia and Ukraine, balancing its relationships while avoiding full alignment with either side. Erdoğan now seeks to continue this policy, positioning Türkiye as one of the few nations capable of mediating between Moscow and Kyiv.
Why is Türkiye uniquely positioned to do this? To understand this, we must look back to July 2022.
The Black Sea Grain Deal, officially called the Black Sea Grain Initiative, was a landmark agreement brokered by Türkiye and the U.N. between Russia and Ukraine. Its goal was to allow the safe export of grain, foodstuffs and fertilizers from Ukrainian Black Sea ports amid the ongoing war.
Ukraine is one of the world’s largest grain exporters, and the conflict severely disrupted global food supply chains, causing price spikes and raising concerns about food shortages, especially in Europe. The deal allowed Ukraine to resume agricultural exports, stabilizing global food prices.
How did the deal work? Ukrainian grain was shipped through three key Black Sea ports: Odesa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi. Ships were inspected in Türkiye to ensure they weren’t carrying weapons. Russia was also supposed to receive assistance with its food and fertilizer exports, though Moscow later claimed this aspect of the deal was not fully honored.
Following the agreement, several world leaders and organizations expressed gratitude to Erdoğan and Türkiye for the mediation efforts. Those who acknowledged Erdoğan and Türkiye’s role included: U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres, Zelenskyy, Russian President Vladimir Putin, U.S. President Joe Biden, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and nations dependent on Ukrainian grain, such as Egypt, Somalia and Lebanon.
The perception that Erdoğan is uniquely positioned to mediate between Russia and Ukraine stems from Türkiye’s geopolitical balancing act, historical ties to both nations and past diplomatic successes. On the one hand, Türkiye's being a NATO ally and an arms supplier to Ukraine (e.g., Bayraktar drones), gives it credibility in Kyiv. On the other, Türkiye depends on Russian energy and nuclear projects and has avoided joining Western sanctions, maintaining open channels with Moscow.
Erdoğan's personal diplomacy with both countries' leaders is also a significant factor. He maintains a working relationship with Putin (e.g., in Syria, the S-400 missile deal) while supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty. This was exemplified during the prisoner swap operation when Türkiye facilitated high-profile exchanges of prisoners of war, including Azovstal commanders in 2022.
As a non-Western power, Türkiye appeals to nations skeptical of U.S. and EU-led initiatives, potentially broadening support for peace efforts beyond traditional Western alliances. It also controls this critical waterway under the 1936 Montreux Convention, allowing it to regulate naval access to the Black Sea. This gives Ankara significant leverage over both Russia and Ukraine.
Türkiye’s unique position allows it to broker discrete deals – such as grain exports and prisoner exchanges – while keeping dialogue open between the warring sides. However, achieving a lasting peace will require more than just mediation. A shift in battlefield dynamics, political will from Moscow and Kyiv, and coordination with Western powers and other global actors will all be necessary.
Until then, Türkiye remains a critical facilitator of diplomacy and one of the most important actors in an increasingly multipolar geopolitical landscape. Given its past successes, it has the potential to play a key role in future peace efforts.
