Afghanistan as a nation-state has experienced decades of protracted conflicts. The country experienced five civil wars in the 20th century. The latest civil war began in the post-Soviet era in 1992, continued with the Taliban takeover in 1996 and ended with the U.S. intervention in late 2001. Since potential conflicts do not have a singular causality, the prospect of another civil war in Afghanistan can be attributed to two main factors: those that are internal and external. Although each of these factors is crucial in either pushing Afghanistan into another civil war or saving it from one, the internal factor is the foremost contributor.
Afghanistan is a multinational country that several ethnic groups inhabit. This land consists of seven major ethnic groups: Pashtuns, Tajiks, Uzbeks, Hazaras, Turkmens, Aimaqs and Balochs. Other minorities such as Kyrgyz and Nuristani communities also inhabit the country. Although there is no current, reliable census on the ethnic composition of Afghanistan, data from a disputed census by the U.S. State Department in 2010 estimates that the Pashtuns, including the Kuchi migrants from Pakistan, make up around 42%, Tajiks 27%, Hazaras 9%, Uzbeks 9%, Aimaqs 4%, Turkmen 3%, Balochs 2% and other groups make up 4%. The ethnic Pashtun claim to be the majority; however, each of the above ethnic groups constitutes the majority in their respective regions. Pashtuns are the dominant group in the south and eastern flanks, Tajiks are dominant in the west and northeastern flanks, the Hazara ethnic group is in the center, and Uzbeks and Turkmens are the dominant groups in the north and northwestern parts.
An interesting, provocative aspect of the internal factor is the affiliation of the name "Afghanistan" with the Pashtun ethnic group. "Afghan" is synonymous with "Pashtun," and "istan," means the land, making Afghanistan the land of Pashtuns. This debate had existed within the public for decades, and before the Taliban takeover in August 2021, politicians and public figures often emphasized this issue. Since the Taliban are predominantly ethnic Pashtuns, the rhetoric of non-Pashtun exclusion became feasible and there is a prevalent ethnic hostility growing day by day.
The Taliban are implementing public policies contrary to Islamic Sharia law, forcing Pashtun identity in a diverse society by eliminating non-Pashtun texts and disposing non-Pashtun identity from daily life. Such provocations by the Taliban brought controversy to the existence of a cohesive spontaneous national identity, which is crucial for the survival of a state and defining its people. Adding to the three decades of hostile interaction between the Taliban and the non-Pashtun inhabitants, the prospect of another civil war in Afghanistan is at its peak.
Despite the optimistic common debate upon the positive behavioral change in the Taliban administration compared to the 1996-2001 era, their cruel policies on women's education, dress codes and banning men from trimming their beards have proven otherwise. The Taliban’s public policy is becoming coercive to ordinary citizens who had experienced 20 years of relative democracy and individual freedom. More importantly, the 1996-2001 Taliban regime was recognized by a few countries, including Pakistan. However, the post-2021 Taliban government has not yet received recognition by any state. Nonetheless, they abstained from compromising on any of their domestic affairs for the sake of external sovereignty, all of which inflamed identity politics.
Above all, the decades of war and instability in Afghanistan hastened the irregular influx to neighboring and regional countries such as Turkey. Assuming "ceteris paribus" on the external factor, the current internal situation makes civil war in Afghanistan inevitable. Such a prospect could be very disadvantageous for neighboring countries and Turkey. Therefore, powerful states, including Turkey, need to play their bargaining cards with the Taliban and force them toward an inclusive government. Soon, what happens in Afghanistan will negatively affect Turkey and beyond.
