President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in September 2025 was not merely a bilateral encounter between two leaders but rather a diplomatic turning point that could reshape the trajectory of Türkiye-U.S. relations.
As is well known, the relationship between the two countries has historically been marked by fluctuations. During Trump’s presidency from 2017 to 2021, Erdoğan and Trump met twice, whereas under former U.S. President Joe Biden, relations had frozen. Today, however, both sides are making efforts to rebuild ties, as if they had never been broken. Yet, Türkiye is no longer in the same position it was six years ago.
Systemic transformations, changing regional balances and particularly strategic advances in the defense industry have elevated Türkiye to the status of a rising power not only regionally but also globally. In this regard, bilateral relations should no longer be read solely within the framework of traditional alliance but also through the lens of Türkiye’s growing autonomy and multidimensional foreign policy approach.
Türkiye’s purchase of the S-400 air defense system from Russia and the subsequent imposition of Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) became a turning point in bilateral relations. Despite Türkiye’s $1.4 billion payment, its removal from the F-35 program created a profound crisis of trust between the parties. On the other hand, the U.S. military support for the YPG, the Syrian offshoot of the PKK terrorist organization, under the umbrella of the SDF, has been one of the sharpest points of crisis in Turkish-American relations. Ankara perceives this as a direct threat to its national security and, since 2016, has sought to take the initiative on the ground through operations such as Euphrates Shield and Peace Spring.
Considering recent developments, it is clear that compulsory cooperation throughout the Syrian revolution that overthrew the Assad regime has played a significant role in strengthening bilateral relations and restoring regional stability. In Trump’s second term, his decision to sit at the negotiating table with Erdoğan once again signifies a renewed attempt to address and renegotiate these contentious issues. Moreover, following Trump’s meeting with Erdoğan, Trump’s messages in his talks with Syrian interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa about lifting sanctions drew particular attention.
The relationship between Trump and Erdoğan extends beyond symbolic conventions, characterized by a focus on enhancing bilateral cooperation and addressing existing challenges. Direct interactions between the two leaders have, at times, transcended institutional processes, contributing to the establishment of mutual trust and the advancement of strategic partnership in tangible areas. This approach has given rise to a form of “leader-to-leader diplomacy,” aiming to maintain open dialogue channels and strengthen cooperation based on shared interests in Türkiye-U.S. relations. Nevertheless, what, then, actually took place during the bilateral meeting?
With Trump’s influence in international politics, personal ties between leaders are becoming decisive in conflict resolution, particularly where institutions remain limited. Within Erdoğan and Trump's relationship, personal rapport and informal gestures play a central role in shaping bilateral ties. Unlike traditional institutional diplomacy, this approach emphasizes trust built on direct leader-to-leader interactions. One of the most striking aspects of the Erdoğan-Trump meeting was the set of symbolic messages conveyed through carefully chosen details – from Trump’s F-35 pin to Erdoğan’s accommodation at Blair House – which reinforced mutual recognition and respect.
Blair House, the official state guesthouse located across from the White House, is reserved exclusively for the most distinguished visitors. From the very beginning, it was evident that Trump’s approach to Erdoğan was based on equality and respect. Erdoğan’s stay at Blair House is a special protocol message at the state level; it is a demonstration of the diplomatic status granted to Türkiye. This became evident at the start of the talks. Unlike the positions of leaders such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy or certain European counterparts, who were previously received in the Oval Office, a political ground emerged that was mainly shaped by the bilateral relationship between Trump and Erdoğan.
For the first time in the Oval Office, Trump pinned a badge next to the U.S. flag on his jacket, an aircraft, or possibly an F-35. This choice was not merely a protocol detail, but rather a diplomatic symbol directly referring to the issue most prominent on Türkiye’s agenda: the prospect of returning to the F-35 program. At the same time, the presence of a Boeing model on the table signalled that the bilateral discussions would not be confined to political and military matters alone but would also highlight the economic and trade dimensions of the relationship.
The second primary dimension of the meeting was economics. In 2024, the trade volume between Türkiye and the U.S. stood at $32 billion. The new target for 2025, which aims to raise this figure to $100 billion, demonstrates a shared intention to reinforce the vision of a “strategic partnership” by strengthening its economic foundations.
One of the most tangible outcomes of the meeting was the signing of a 20-year LNG supply agreement. This deal will contribute to diversifying Türkiye’s energy security, while for the U.S., it positions Türkiye as both a strategic energy customer and a regional distribution hub.
In addition, a strategic civil nuclear cooperation memorandum of understanding was signed, enabling Türkiye to reinforce its nuclear partnership with the U.S. alongside its ongoing cooperation with Russia at Akkuyu. This step constitutes a critical development in terms of both technology transfer and geopolitical balancing. Under the framework of the NPT, every state has the right to develop civilian nuclear energy. This development indicates that Türkiye and the U.S. will also deepen their collaboration in the nuclear sphere, particularly in terms of technological exchange and long-term strategic partnerships.
At the same time, regarding Türkiye’s pursuit of energy diversification, it is worth noting that Trump does not necessarily seek to sever Türkiye’s ties with Russia. As he himself has acknowledged, Erdoğan is a respected figure to both Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin, and all parties trust him in the context of mediation. Therefore, Trump’s energy initiative can be interpreted not as a move to force a rupture, but rather as an effort to expand commercial relations. Of course, the issue of weakening Russia’s hand in the energy sector should also be taken into account. Trump has consistently emphasized the need to limit Russia’s role in energy as part of efforts to establish a peace table. In this context, he has even imposed customs tariffs on India.
The meeting was also shaped by diplomatic messages concerning regional crises. Erdoğan raised the ongoing humanitarian tragedy in Gaza and reiterated Türkiye’s commitment to a just solution to the Palestinian question. Trump, while refraining from direct criticism, adopted a discourse that acknowledged Türkiye’s role as a regional actor. On the issue of Gaza, the question of a cease-fire and reconstruction was, to some extent, rekindled with hope by the meeting at the U.N., where Erdoğan and Trump sat side by side. In this sense, the White House talks should be seen as a step toward silencing the guns in Gaza.
The Syrian file emerged as another key topic, despite the differing priorities of the two leaders. Erdoğan underscored the necessity of safeguarding Türkiye’s borders and ending support for the YPG. In contrast, Trump offered statements praising Türkiye’s role in Syria and suggested that a “major announcement” would soon be made. Finally, it is important to recall Trump’s statement describing Erdoğan as a “strong leader with a strong army.” This situation was not merely praise, but rather a strategic message. It reflected a realist assessment that both recognized the strength of Türkiye’s foreign policy and defense strategy and, at the same time, conveyed an expectation of partnership with Türkiye in the regional context.
The meeting demonstrated that Türkiye is no longer merely a regional actor but has become a pivotal center in shaping global power balances. The strategic energy and civil nuclear cooperation agreements signed with the U.S. have reinforced Türkiye’s energy security and strengthened its role in international energy diplomacy. Moreover, Trump’s characterization of Türkiye as a “rising power” stands as a renewed confirmation of the country’s geopolitical significance in the eyes of the international community. At the same time, Türkiye’s multidimensional foreign policy clearly reflects its pursuit of advancing relations with the U.S. in a balanced manner, without being confined solely to the Western axis.
“Leader-to-leader diplomacy” emerged during the Trump era as a form of diplomacy centered on personal friendships, which bypassed official protocols and emphasized direct interactions between leaders. While this approach was visible in Trump’s relations with several leaders, it became most evident and concrete in his interactions with Erdoğan. However, Trump’s unpredictable behavior and tendency to act on emotions also rendered this personalized model fragile, raising concerns about its sustainability in ensuring continuity and stability in bilateral relations.
At this point, it can be said that a new phase in Türkiye-U.S. relations has begun, characterized by equality and a balance of power. Nevertheless, considering that the past will inevitably shape the future, a cautious optimism should guide the outlook on this relationship, as it carries both opportunities and challenges for the period ahead.
