U.S. President Donald Trump stated recently that he wanted Ukraine to supply his country with rare earth minerals in return for financially supporting Kyiv's war effort against Russia.
Many had hoped that when Trump was elected, all wars would quickly come to an end, as he had promised during his election campaign. However, as reality set in, Trump soon began to reveal his true realist and pragmatic face. While the U.S. president proposed turning Gaza into a “Riviera of the Middle East,” he is now also trying to take advantage of the difficult situation of his “close ally” Ukraine.
It started before Trump. However, with his inauguration, we see a clear end to an era where states assist each other based on principles. With him begins a period in which they act purely based on their interests, embodying the idea that "Man is a wolf to man.” We are witnessing the decline of international agreements and institutions and a period in which countries must sell their most vital resources to survive.
Trump criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, calling him the "greatest salesman on earth" for securing significant U.S. support during his election campaign. However, not many expected such an openly public proposal, even from Trump.
Also, let’s not forget that this is not the first time Trump has linked U.S. military aid to demands and blackmailed Ukraine. During his first presidency, he reportedly conditioned the release of U.S. aid on Zelenskyy reopening an investigation into a Ukrainian energy company whose board included Joe Biden’s son when Biden was vice president.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz labeled this plan as “selfish” and “self-centered,” arguing that such resources would be better used for Ukraine's postwar reconstruction.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin described Trump’s idea of exchanging Ukrainian rare earth minerals for military aid as a “commercial proposal,” adding, “Of course, it would have been better if this aid had never been provided, as it would have contributed to ending the conflict." This shows Russia's discontent about the potential for more aid on the way.
Surprisingly, instead of slamming Trump's proposal, Ukraine declared that they are open to discussions. Zelenskyy stated, “If we are talking about a deal, then let's make a deal. We are in favor of it,” emphasizing Ukraine's need for security guarantees from its allies as part of any agreement.
Rare earth elements consist of 17 minerals, including yttrium, cerium and lanthanum, which are dispersed in small quantities throughout the Earth's crust. Their demand is growing rapidly due to their essential role in high-tech industries, particularly in battery production, which aims to create smaller, lighter and more efficient energy storage solutions. Additionally, the defense sector relies on these minerals for advanced weaponry and military technologies.
China dominates the global rare earth element market, accounting for approximately 70% of the world's supply. Meanwhile, the U.S. is actively working to decrease its dependency on China, especially as tensions escalate, with Washington recently imposing a 10% tariff increase as part of its ongoing trade war with Beijing.
Trump's proposal to Ukraine resembles Zelenskyy’s “victory plan,” which the Ukrainian leader introduced last October. Under this plan, Ukraine offers its strategic partners a special agreement for its critical resources, while in return, it expects NATO membership and the strengthening of its deterrence capabilities against Russia.
These critical resources include uranium, titanium, lithium and graphite. Although these are not classified as rare earth elements, there are additional unspecified "strategically valuable" resources. Ukraine possesses vast reserves of essential rare earth minerals, accounting for around 5% of the world's total mineral resources, as stated in a 2024 World Economic Forum report.
Beyond its significant confirmed lithium reserves, Ukraine is also a key supplier of semiconductor-grade neon gas, which is vital for chip manufacturing. Additionally, the country holds substantial deposits of beryllium, uranium, zirconium, apatite, iron ore and manganese. It is also significant to remember that one-fifth of Ukraine remains under Russian occupation.
Trump's proposal also indicates that his promise of a cease-fire within 24 hours was merely an election pledge, and the U.S. appears to be preparing for a prolonged conflict and continued assistance.
On the battlefield, Russia maintains the upper hand while the Ukrainian army struggles with a shortage of soldiers and ammunition. Despite suffering grave losses in eastern Ukraine in recent months, Russia has continued to make slow but steady advances. Over the past year, Russia has gradually expanded its control and now holds the majority of the four regions it annexed in 2022: Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk. Currently, Moscow’s forces are advancing toward the strategically important Ukrainian town of Pokrovsk.
In this situation, time is not on Ukraine’s side. With each day they delay negotiations, they continue to lose territory. Therefore, the sooner the sides come to the table, the better it will be for Ukraine. Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart are expected to meet soon. However, there are still no signs of the long-anticipated meeting between Washington and Moscow yet.
In conclusion, any hopes for a swift 24-hour peace resolution between Ukraine and Russia seem distant. Meanwhile, Trump may present additional controversial proposals in the future and attempt to exploit war-weary Ukraine's vulnerable position in the ongoing conflict.
