Türkiye’s offshore initiative in Somalia, unlike the wait-and-see strategy of conventional international oil companies, is a long-term and multilayered geopolitical energy investment based on early positioning in a frontier basin characterized by high geological and economic uncertainty.
At first glance, it may appear to be an initiative framed within energy supply security and the search for new reserves. However, upon deeper analysis, it reflects a notable expansion of Türkiye’s multi-dimensional geopolitical strategy focused on building regional and global presence. In this context, the work carried out in Somalia is not only a technical drilling operation. It demonstrates in which geographies, with which instruments and through what kind of power projection Türkiye seeks to exist.
The selection of Somalia is also not coincidental in this regard. Located in the Horn of Africa and forming a strategic passage point between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean, Somalia stands out due to its proximity to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, one of the most critical routes of global maritime trade. This narrow strait is an artery through which a significant portion of trade between Europe and Asia passes via the Suez Canal. Therefore, establishing a presence in Somalia means not only access to energy resources but also a geopolitical positioning close to global trade routes.
Another important dimension of this strategy is the early positioning approach. The region is, in fact, not newly discovered. Since the 1950s, major international oil companies such as Shell, ExxonMobil and Chevron obtained licenses in large offshore blocks in Somalia and conducted extensive seismic studies. However, with the collapse of state structures in the 1990s, these companies halted operations and, while not fully abandoning the fields, shifted to a wait-and-see strategy by preserving their legal rights. Today, a significant portion of these companies still maintains their license positions but does not proceed to active drilling or production stages.
Türkiye, however, has taken an early position in an environment where this passive stance has formed. Somalia’s offshore fields are largely considered frontier and unexplored areas. This represents high risk together with high potential. Türkiye’s entry at this stage may provide significant advantages in the event of major discoveries in the future.
In the first phase of Türkiye’s activities in Somalia, the vessel deployed was the Oruç Reis seismic research vessel. Its role is not to produce hydrocarbons or drill wells but to image the geological structure beneath the surface. Over a period of approximately eight to nine months, the Oruç Reis collected large-scale three-dimensional seismic data in Somalia’s offshore areas. This data acquisition process is one of the most critical stages in offshore energy projects because drilling a well in the wrong location can mean losses of hundreds of millions of dollars.
In terms of technical capacity, the Oruç Reis is equipped with modern multichannel seismic systems. This platform, approximately 87 meters (285 feet) in length, uses high-pressure air guns to image geological layers beneath the seabed. These systems send sound waves into the seabed, and by analyzing the return time of these waves, subsurface rock structures are modeled in three dimensions.
In particular, 3D seismic data plays a critical role in evaluating potential hydrocarbon traps, reservoir quality and seal integrity. The data obtained at this stage is not analyzed in the field but in central locations using advanced software systems.
It is known that data collected from Somalia is evaluated in Ankara. As a result of these analyses, structures that may contain hydrocarbons are identified and targets known as prospects are defined for drilling.
The deployment of the Cağrı Bey drilling vessel to Somalia took place precisely after this stage. In other words, the drilling decision is a technically supported selection based on seismic data. Cağrı Bey performs a completely different function from the Oruç Reis. If the Oruç Reis is a radar imaging the subsurface, Cağrı Bey is an engineering platform that physically reaches the point identified in that image and tests the reservoir.
Technically classified as a seventh-generation ultra-deepwater drillship, this vessel has the capacity to reach a total drilling depth of approximately 12,000 meters. This means that in a field with water depths of 2,000 to 3,000 meters, it can drill an additional 8,000 to 9,000 meters below the seabed. One of the most critical systems of the vessel is its dynamic positioning technology. Thanks to this system, the vessel can remain fixed at a single point using thrusters and sensors without being anchored to the seabed. This is essential in deep offshore fields such as Somalia because conventional anchoring methods are not feasible at such depths.
A crucial technical distinction must be made here. Seismic data indicates probability, not certainty. The data obtained by the Oruç Reis shows that a certain structure may contain hydrocarbons but this can only be confirmed through drilling. Therefore, the role of Cağrı Bey is to test this geological hypothesis.
In the event of a successful discovery, the process moves to field development, which includes platform installation, production infrastructure and export pipelines, representing a much larger investment cycle. For this reason, the strategic value of the project is shaped not only by the current technical progress but also by possible outcome scenarios.
In energy economics literature, such projects are defined as high-risk, high-uncertainty exploration plays, and their evaluation is based on the geopolitical and economic consequences of both success and failure scenarios. In a successful discovery scenario, meaning the confirmation of commercially viable hydrocarbon reserves in Somalia’s offshore fields, the impact for Türkiye would not be limited to energy supply security.
First, such a discovery would geographically diversify Türkiye’s upstream portfolio and position the country not only as a consumer but also as an international producer. This would mean an increase in operational capacity for the Turkish Petroleum Corporation on a global scale. In this scenario, the proximity to the Bab al-Mandeb and Indian Ocean maritime trade routes would allow Türkiye to integrate its energy diplomacy with maritime geopolitics. If the discovery is successful, Somalia would become not only a production field but also a strategic base close to global energy and trade corridors. This would enable Türkiye to establish a permanent economic and political presence in the Horn of Africa.
In a possible failure scenario, where drilling does not result in a commercial hydrocarbon discovery, the project does not become entirely meaningless, but its economic return remains limited. In offshore exploration projects, dry well results are quite common, and in such cases, the greatest loss is sunk cost. For Türkiye, this cost is not only financial but also includes time, operational resources and diplomatic capital.
However, there is also a critical third possibility, namely a partial success scenario. In this case, hydrocarbon indications are found in the field, but the reservoir quality or continuity is not sufficient for commercial production. Such outcomes are quite common in frontier basins. In a partial success situation, Türkiye increases its field knowledge, but this knowledge does not directly translate into production. Nevertheless, the seismic and drilling data obtained create a strategic dataset for future investment decisions and strengthen geological modeling in the region.
From a critical perspective, Türkiye’s Somalia initiative should also be evaluated in terms of opportunity cost. The same financial and operational resources could have generated more predictable returns if deployed in lower-risk regions. Therefore, the Somalia investment can also be interpreted not as a classical energy company behavior but rather as a state-driven risk optimization strategy aimed at geopolitical returns.
