In his second presidential term, U.S. President Donald Trump is once again reshaping the character of U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East, this time with a more business-like, technology-driven edge. The May 2025 Gulf tour marks a significant pivot away from the conventional pillars of Washington’s regional engagement, security and hydrocarbons, toward a new combination of artificial intelligence, strategic investments and geopolitical hedging. What emerges is a policy architecture that is less ideological and more opportunistic. It seeks to contain China, reset alliances in trouble like Israel, and uses techno-economic diplomacy as a new lever of influence.
Trump’s latest trip to the Gulf states was unprecedented, not merely in optics, but in the content. Assembled by the CEOs of NVIDIA, Amazon, Palantir and OpenAI, the president's delegation signaled a deliberate effort to integrate Silicon Valley into Gulf diplomacy. The centerpiece of the visit was the announcement of what could become the world’s largest artificial intelligence campus in the United Arab Emirates. This was anchored by a deal for the importation of 500,000 NVIDIA Blackwell chips.
This symbolic shift from F-35s to GPUs underscores Washington’s ambition to reimagine its relationship with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in the context of global digital transformation. The U.S. is no longer merely an arms supplier or security guarantor. It now positions itself as the indispensable partner for Gulf nations seeking to pivot toward a post-oil, data-driven economy.
Saudi Arabia’s AI initiative HUMAIN, backed by the kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund, is being marketed as a flagship project in this transition. But concerns over the financial sustainability of such ventures remain. With a projected $67 billion budget deficit in 2025 and oil prices falling below the break-even threshold of $96 per barrel, Riyadh’s ability to underwrite tech megaprojects is increasingly uncertain. While Washington hopes these high-profile partnerships will cement American technological dominance and sideline Chinese alternatives like Huawei, Gulf partners remain at risk on both an economic and political level.
Trump’s second-term Middle East strategy also involves a notable cooling of ties with Israel, an unexpected development given the intimacy of his first-term administration's dealings with the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government. There is no longer the era of unconditional support that led to landmark decisions like the recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital or the recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights.
Instead, recent moves, including Trump’s support for a gradual lifting of U.S. sanctions on Syria and his administration’s engagement with transitional leadership under Ahmed al-Sharaa, have raised concerns in Tel Aviv. Officials in Israel view Washington's overtures toward Damascus as legitimizing the new political order and as opening the way for a renewed Sunni regional order. In contrast, the Trump administration frames this policy as a balancing act, aimed at diluting Russia’s sway over the Levant and embedding Gulf states into the Syrian reconstruction process.
Perhaps even more contentious is Trump’s willingness to engage directly with Hamas, bypassing traditional intermediaries like Qatar and Türkiye. Since Tel Aviv was neither directly nor indirectly consulted, this move directly raised concerns in Israel.
In a stunning diplomatic maneuver, Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, orchestrated a prisoner exchange with Hamas, which traumatized the Netanyahu government because Israel had no input in the process. While the move helped secure the release of an American Israeli dual national, it also drew accusations from Netanyahu’s government of legitimizing terrorism and undermining Israeli deterrence. The Netanyahu-Trump relationship, once defined by solidarity and spectacle, is now tinged with mistrust and strategic divergence.
The overarching rationale behind Trump’s Middle East policy lies in an intensifying global power struggle. For the U.S., the Gulf is no longer just an energy corridor, it is a front line in its contest with China and Russia. Washington’s efforts to counterbalance China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) through digital infrastructure, space-based communications (like Starlink), and trade corridor initiatives such as the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) highlight this renewed focus.
Yet such ambitions clash with the Gulf’s increasingly multipolar posture. Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE have embraced hedging strategies, maintaining close relations with China even as they deepen economic ties with the U.S. For example, Beijing remains Riyadh’s top crude oil customer, and Huawei’s digital infrastructure continues to proliferate across the region despite U.S. sanctions pressure.
The same dynamic plays out with Russia. By pressuring Saudi Arabia to increase oil output and drive prices down, Washington hopes to curtail Moscow’s hydrocarbon revenue streams. But this comes at the expense of Riyadh’s fiscal health and regional leverage. Moreover, the decision to ease sanctions on Syria and open diplomatic channels with its new leadership may partly be designed to dilute Russian influence in Damascus – yet the long-term success of such an approach remains uncertain.
Trump’s second-term Middle East policy reflects both evolution and improvisation. On the one hand, the pivot to techno-diplomacy and regional multipolarity is a pragmatic response to shifting global realities. On the other hand, the lack of institutional coherence and the reliance on personalized diplomacy – often centered on Trump’s inner circle and ideological loyalists – raises questions about sustainability and long-term impact. The recalibration of the U.S.-Israel relationship, the risky courtship of Hamas, and the instrumentalization of Gulf petrodollars in tech competition with China represent a departure from conventional strategy. Whether this departure constitutes innovation or drift is open to debate.
If successful, Trump’s Middle East 2.0 could lay the groundwork for a more agile, digitally oriented and economically diversified U.S. role in the region; one less dependent on military assets and more anchored in value-added partnerships. If not, it could accelerate regional fragmentation, embolden adversaries and erode what remains of American credibility. Therefore, Donald Trump’s evolving approach to the Middle East reflects his signature ethos: bold, disruptive and deeply transactional. By replacing tanks with chips and allies with clients, Trump is gambling that a new blend of strategic minimalism and economic maximalism can preserve U.S. dominance in a region under flux. Whether that gamble pays off will depend on the ability of his administration to convert deals into durable influence – and navigate the delicate balance between innovation and instability.
