Lebanon is in a very difficult situation, lost in a sea of uncertainty. Israel keeps bombarding the country despite a cease-fire. The state has no leverage with the Israeli administration and is incapable of asserting its authority internally. The economic situation is disastrous, and there is no provision of any real services to the average citizen. Electricity is barely available. Lebanon needs a solution.
To add to this disastrous situation, political polarization has reached an unprecedented level. Usually, a strike produces a “rally around the flag” effect, bringing people together in the face of an external threat. In Lebanon, however, it has had the opposite effect, deepening existing political divisions rather than uniting the country.
While the south of Lebanon is being decimated by Israel and over a million people have lost their homes, some politicians publicly brag that they wish to have a drink in Tel Aviv.
In this very grim scenario in a highly unstable region, there is a prospect of a solution: The Mecca Agreement.
The Middle East is witnessing a profound restructuring of the balance of power and inter-state relations. Against this backdrop, a growing strategic rapprochement is emerging among Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan, with the potential for other Arab and Islamic nations to join or coordinate with them, signaling the emergence of a new regional balance.
Lebanon cannot remain unaffected by these shifts without a serious political debate. Given its geographic and political position, it is directly impacted by any changes in the region’s balance of power.
It should position itself within this emerging framework, eventually joining the agreement.
The new regional balance could present an opportunity for Lebanon, provided it is managed effectively. The Mecca Agreement could create a much-needed balance, as a cooperative framework among regional powers would limit any single party’s monopoly over regional decision-making.
If Lebanon positions itself strategically within this framework, it could avoid being caught in the crossfire of the competition between Israel and Iran.
Currently, it is stuck between a rock and a hard place. On the one hand, the state wants to assert its independence and does not want to delegate its fate to Iran. On the other hand, it is facing the Israeli enemy and has no leverage at all.
Some in Lebanon argue that the country’s only leverage is Tehran, and that Iran is therefore the only actor capable of securing an acceptable deal between Beirut and Tel Aviv. The other camp argues that any cease-fire or agreement reached through Tehran would effectively mean surrendering the country’s sovereignty to the benefit of Iran and Hezbollah. Lebanese society is deeply divided over the issue, and either option could risk triggering further social unrest.
In this respect, the Mecca Agreement could be a lifesaver. As Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan clarified, it is not directed against anyone. Rather, it is a security cooperation framework aimed at bringing greater stability to the region. Therefore, if Lebanon positions itself within this pact, it could gain greater leverage while dealing with Israel. At the same time, Lebanon would neither be taking an antagonistic position toward Iran, nor would it be delegating its fate and sovereignty to Tehran.
The general grassroots mood in Lebanon is positive toward the agreement. In addition to giving Lebanon greater leverage to defend its interests, it could promote internal stability by ensuring that Lebanon does not take either of the two sides that are deepening societal divisions.
The countries participating in the Mecca Agreement could also play an important role in protecting Lebanon’s borders once the war is over. They could form the foundation of a new security arrangement to replace the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) forces, whose mandate is set to expire shortly and whose future is currently being discussed.
Beyond the political and security dimensions, the Mecca Agreement could also contribute to Lebanon’s reconstruction and rehabilitation.
Lebanon’s entry into the agreement would also be beneficial to Türkiye. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has previously stated that Türkiye’s security begins in Aleppo, Damascus and Beirut. Beirut’s joining the pact could provide an appropriate framework for advancing President Erdoğan’s vision.
This would allow Türkiye to pursue its engagement through a multilateral framework, alongside Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Within the framework of the Mecca Agreement, Türkiye could also benefit from Saudi Arabia’s soft power and longstanding presence in Lebanon. Saudi Arabia has decades of experience engaging with grassroots communities and different political factions across the country. Together, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye could therefore play an important role in facilitating Lebanon’s integration into the agreement.
People in Lebanon are longing for a lifesaver beyond the toxic logic of competing axes, and they see the Mecca Agreement as a potential solution. The agreement now needs to start bearing the fruits of prosperity and stability for the region. Lebanon could be the first fruit.
