Since 2022, European politics have been overshadowed by the Russian-Ukrainian war. Political landscapes, coalitions and even perceptions are strongly transformed by geopolitical realities and security concerns. In this respect, Poland is one of the key actors both in NATO and the EU regarding migration, foreign and defense policies. In recent years, Poland’s political architecture has been dominated by two distinct political parties with two main figures, Prime Minister Donald Tusk from the Civic Platform (PO) and former President Andrzej Duda from the Law and Justice Party (PiS).
With the third year of the war and U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term, national elections in European countries turned out to be more important. The 2025 Polish Presidential election has dominated the European public since the first round, which ended with no majority.
The second round of the Polish presidential election held on June 1, 2025, was a critical turning point for the country and Europe, with a high turnout rate of 73%. In the second round of the election, conservative historian Karol Nawrocki narrowly defeated liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski with 50.89% of the vote to become president. The election is over, but the debate regarding the future of Poland and its regional effects has just started.
The 2025 Polish presidential election had two distinct candidates from two political parties, the PiS and the PO. Karol Nawrocki, 42, who was an independent candidate supported by the PiS party, began his political career as president of the Polish Institute of National Remembrance. In this role, he attracted attention with measures such as removing Soviet-era monuments and strengthening nationalist historical narratives. During his election campaign, he emphasized conservative rhetoric such as opposition to abortion, defense of traditional family structures and opposition to LGBTQ+ rights. Additionally, the support and inspiration from U.S. President Donald Trump contributed to his campaign gaining international attention.
Throughout the election campaign, Nawrocki's nationalist and conservative rhetoric stood out, while PO candidate Rafał Trzaskowski advocated for the relaxation of Poland's abortion regulations, which were virtually prohibited under the PiS government, as well as support for civil partnership for LGBTQ+ couples. Along with these opposite views on domestic issues, the two leaders have distinct perceptions of the Russian-Ukrainian war and European security. Nawrocki directly criticized Ukrainian refugees and opposed Ukraine’s membership in NATO and the EU.
In light of these distinct political campaigns, the first round resulted in Trzaskowski receiving 31.4% of the vote and Nawrocki receiving 29.5%, advancing to the second round. In the second round, while exit polls indicated Trzaskowski was leading, official results showed Nawrocki won the election with 50.89% of the vote.
Although presidential power is limited in the Polish system, Nawrocki posed sharp policy choices during his campaign regarding geopolitical issues, so now all public eyes are on his era. There are three main topics: the Russian-Ukrainian war, relations with the EU and the U.S.
First, the Russian-Ukrainian war has undeniable implications for Polish and European security. Poland, with one of the biggest armies in Europe, has become a key actor, while Europe aims to build a new security architecture. Security and defense policies formulated as the 2032 Polish Defense Vision are based on military modernization, strengthening NATO, regional security, cybersecurity and protection from hybrid threats. Also, this broad vision includes territorial defense, domestic defense industry growth and nuclear deterrence. As expected, Nawrocki will also strongly continue this defense policy vision in his era.
Secondly, because of Nawrocki’s discourse on Ukraine, his visit to the Monument to the Volhynia Massacre just a day before the election created huge controversy. However, Nawrocki’s response to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's X message for his victory shows that he might change his tone toward Ukraine to some extent, and good dialogue and cooperation against Russia will be kept as centrality in mutual relations.
Thirdly, Nawrocki's victory can seriously challenge the pro-EU government led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk. The president's veto power could block the government's agenda in judicial reforms, climate policies and civil rights. This situation could negatively affect Poland's access to EU funds and its position within the EU in the long term. This has raised questions about whether Tusk's multiparty coalition will survive until the end of its term in 2027.
When U.S.-EU relations are at the crossroads, Polish-American relations become more important. President Trump has supported conservative political figures in European politics, and Nawrocki was no exception. Last month, he hosted Nawrocki in the White House and clearly expressed support for his candidacy. After the election, one of the first reactions to Nawrocki’s triumph came from the U.S. government, which congratulated Nawrocki with the following statement: “The U.S. and Poland have a strong and enduring partnership based on mutual commitment to security, prosperity, and the rule of law.” Also, U.S. President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social, “Congratulations, Poland, you picked a winner!”
These messages can be deemed as a clear indicator that there will be strong and deep relations with the U.S., but different from the post-Cold War era, with more emphasis on being part of a conservative and security-centered bloc in Europe.
Türkiye and Poland have deep and rooted relations for many centuries. The relations have a multidimensional structure that includes cultural, economic and political aspects. Although there have been some historical interruptions, both countries have maintained positive relations. Especially in the last decade, mutual relations have been marked with close cooperation in defense and security policies perpetuated by the Russian-Ukrainian war. The two countries established long-term cooperation in the defense sector, based on the procurement of Turkish defense systems by Poland and Poland’s interest in Türkiye's advanced technological platforms, which can be transformed into a joint production ecosystem. Also, trade volume is $12 billion (TL 471.36 billion), which is aimed to be increased to $15 billion, as promised during Tusk’s last visit to Türkiye.
In addition, Türkiye became the strategic partner of the Three Seas Initiative last month in Warsaw, bringing together presidents from nations between the Adriatic, Baltic and Black Seas to encourage collaboration. The goal is to promote EU cohesion by enhancing infrastructural, energy and economic cooperation among Central European countries. This new multilateral platform is expected to grow mutual relations in various sectors. In light of these positive developments.
As mentioned, newly elected President Narowcki made national security a priority. Therefore, it can be said that Turkish-Polish relations have the potential to expand and grow in the near future.
