The ongoing bloody war in Ukraine continues to define the lives of millions and disrupt global stability. Recent discussions between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin have sparked cautious optimism for peace. However, history teaches us that such processes are rarely straightforward. Achieving lasting peace will require diplomacy guided by wisdom and foresight.
The Ukrainian-Russian war began in February 2022, following years of unresolved tensions in Donbas and Crimea. In the current trajectory, the war resulted in a tragedy that has left over a million dead and Russian forces controlling about 20% of Ukraine’s territory as of 2025. From a prewar population of 41 million, approximately 8 million Ukrainians have been displaced internally, and over 8.2 million have fled the country, marking Europe’s largest refugee crisis since World War II.
The West has provided Ukraine with substantial financial and military aid, with the U.S. alone contributing over $375 billion. Yet, Russia’s persistence underscores the complexity of this conflict, which sanctions and international condemnation have not resolved.
Recently, Trump’s announcement of peace talks in Saudi Arabia raised hopes for progress. Facilitated by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), these talks aim to de-escalate tensions. However, Ukraine’s exclusion from these initial discussions brought questions about its role in shaping its own future. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, while welcoming the development, has been clear that Ukraine’s sovereignty is non-negotiable.
Trump reportedly advised Zelenskyy to set aside hopes of reclaiming pre-2014 borders or NATO membership. Such terms, if confirmed, would require Ukraine to accept the loss of about a quarter of its territory for the prospect of peace – a staggering concession.
In this tangled web, Türkiye has carved out a unique role as a mediator. It has condemned Russia’s aggression, openly supported Ukraine militarily and maintained economic ties with Russia. By doing so, Türkiye has positioned itself as one of the few actors capable of engaging both sides.
As is known, Türkiye hosted negotiations between Ukraine and Russia in March 2022, demonstrating its diplomatic reach. While the talks did not lead to a final resolution, they underscored Türkiye’s commitment to peace. Similarly, Türkiye played a key role in the Black Sea Grain Initiative, launched in July 2022 in collaboration with the United Nations. This agreement enabled the safe export of Ukrainian grain, stabilizing global food markets during a very critical period.
The conflict is not just a battlefield struggle, it is also a clash of legal principles. Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and its claims over Ukrainian territories violate international law, including the United Nations Charter, which prohibits territorial acquisition by force.
On June 25, 2024, the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR), the top international court in Europe, delivered a significant ruling in the Ukraine v. Russia case. The Court found Russia responsible for systematic violations in Crimea since 2014. This was then a legal and symbolic victory for Ukraine, reaffirming its position under international law. However, enforcing such rulings against a major power like Russia remains a daunting challenge.
After Russia withdrew from its jurisdiction, the ECtHR clarified its stance. It retains authority over cases involving actions before the date of withdrawal and has appointed ad hoc judges (temporary judges appointed due to the absence of a regular judge) to handle cases involving Russia. Currently, eight inter-state cases and around 16,700 individual applications against Russia are pending before the European Court, reflecting the extensive scale of alleged violations.
Ukraine has also pursued accountability through international criminal law. The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin over the illegal deportation of Ukrainian children, a stark reminder of the conflict’s human toll. Meanwhile, Türkiye has strictly adhered to the Montreux Convention, regulating naval traffic to prevent further escalation in the Black Sea.
Despite extensive efforts, the war remains locked in a brutal stalemate, with devastating costs for all sides. Western nations’ strategy of supplying advanced weapons to Ukraine risks prolonging the conflict, while Russia’s refusal to relinquish occupied territories leaves little room for compromise.
Economically, the situation is equally complex. Trump’s suggestion that Ukraine trade rare earth minerals for continued U.S. aid has sparked controversy. Critics warn that such deals could undermine Ukraine’s long-term sovereignty and economic independence, even as the country struggles to rebuild.
Europe faces its own challenges. Sanctions against Russia have disrupted gas supplies, forcing countries like Germany and Poland to rely on expensive liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from the U.S. Meanwhile, the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines has deepened Europe’s energy crisis. Even if peace is achieved, restoring energy infrastructure will take years.
Ukraine’s current challenges evoke memories of its past struggles. In the 1990s, it surrendered the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal under international pressure. Mikhail Poltoranin, a Russian political figure, later revealed how both the U.S. and Russia used economic and political coercion to force Ukraine’s compliance. This historical context adds weight to Ukraine’s present security concerns.
Besides all, Türkiye’s ongoing mediation efforts also highlight its unique diplomatic role. In 2022, Türkiye hosted high-stakes peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. Delegates arrived in Istanbul under tight security, their faces etched with exhaustion and hope. Though the talks ultimately failed, they reaffirmed Türkiye’s position as a bridge between divided sides.
As the war approaches its fourth year, the stakes have never been higher. The Ukraine-Russia conflict is no longer just a regional issue; it has become a global test of principles like sovereignty and human dignity. Türkiye’s ability to engage all parties offers a rare beacon of hope in this turbulent landscape.
However, hope alone will not suffice. Concrete steps toward compromise must replace entrenched positions. While the road to peace will undoubtedly be long and fraught with challenges, the alternative – prolonged suffering and instability – is far worse. For the region and the world, the time for meaningful dialogue is now for Ukraine. With its unique position and commitment, Türkiye may yet play a decisive role in shaping a lasting resolution.
