Relations between Türkiye and Armenia have long been constrained by history, unresolved conflicts and regional rivalries. Yet the geopolitical environment in the South Caucasus is undergoing a quiet but meaningful transformation, one that offers a rare opportunity to move beyond a stalemate toward pragmatic normalization.
The decisive shift came after Azerbaijan’s victory in the Second Karabakh War in 2020, which fundamentally altered the regional balance of power. This outcome reduced the viability of frozen conflicts and created space for diplomacy grounded in new realities. Within this context, Türkiye and Armenia initiated a normalization process in 2022 based on dialogue without preconditions.
While expectations of a rapid political breakthrough were always unrealistic, the process has produced incremental but tangible progress. Contacts have continued steadily, including a symbolic meeting at the Alican/Margara border gate in July 2024. Confidence-building measures, often overlooked in broader geopolitical debates, have begun to reshape the environment in which diplomacy operates.
Among the most concrete steps has been the expansion of direct air connectivity. The decision by Turkish Airlines to launch regular direct flights between Istanbul and Yerevan represents more than improved transportation links. It reflects growing political confidence and lowers the practical and psychological barriers that have long separated the two societies. Similar progress has been made through technical work on reopening the Akyaka/Akhurik railway line and cooperation on restoring the historic Ani Bridge, a shared cultural landmark. Taken together, these developments also reflect the effectiveness of Türkiye’s calibrated foreign policy, one that combines strategic patience, regional coordination and incremental confidence-building rather than headline-driven diplomacy.
Another noteworthy development occurred in March 2025, when the Alican/Margara border gate was temporarily opened to allow humanitarian aid from Armenia to reach Syria, with Türkiye’s facilitation. Though limited in scope, this episode demonstrated the functional value of cooperation and underscored how normalization can deliver concrete regional benefits.
Economic considerations further strengthen the case for progress. A recent field study by the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Türkiye (TEPAV) suggests that permanently reopening the border would generate significant economic gains for both countries, with Armenia likely to benefit disproportionately. Increased trade, tourism and cross-border mobility could contribute to economic resilience in a region that has long suffered from isolation and underinvestment. Improved access to eastern Türkiye’s historical and cultural sites would also support local development and people-to-people interaction.
Normalization, however, remains inseparable from wider regional dynamics. Azerbaijan’s security concerns, ongoing debates over connectivity projects such as the Zangezur Corridor, Iran’s reservations and Russia’s balancing role all shape the diplomatic landscape. Opposition from segments of the Armenian diaspora and unresolved constitutional issues in Armenia add further complexity.
Despite these constraints, the trajectory is clear. Türkiye-Armenia normalization is no longer a theoretical exercise. It is an evolving process with measurable outcomes. For Western policymakers concerned with stability, connectivity and conflict prevention in the South Caucasus, this process deserves closer attention and sustained support.
The current moment offers a narrow but meaningful window. Incremental steps, direct flights, border cooperation and economic engagement are building trust from the ground up. If reinforced through careful diplomacy and regional coordination, they could help transform one of Eurasia’s most enduring fault lines into a zone of connectivity rather than confrontation.
