Numerous public opinion polls have been conducted about the March 30 local elections by renowned Turkish research institutions such as the Objective Research Centre (ORC), GENAR, Andy-Ar, and ANAR. Although the predictions vary by a small margin, there are consistent trends in major cities and districts.

The AK Party is predicted to lead the local elections in metropolises such as Istanbul and Ankara, while there will be a close competition in İzmir - a Republican People's Party (CHP) stronghold.

One of the most recent polls was conducted by ORC in 12 major cities over a period of 22 days. Istanbul, considered the most important metropolis for parties, is expected to be led by AK Party candidate Kadir Topbaş with 45.3 percent, whereas CHP's Mustafa Sarıgül is set to receive 38 percent. Polls indicate that the AK Party and CHP will be neck and neck in İzmir with 38.1 percent and 42.3 percent, respectively.

While the main districts of İzmir will experience a tight race between the two parties, Karşıyaka is predicted to be led by CHP with 47.3 percent.

In Ankara, Mayor Melih Gökçek is expected to be re-elected with 47.6 percent, whereas CHP's Mansur Yavaş is expected to receive about 34.1 percent of the vote. In eastern Turkey, the pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) is predicted to surpass the AK Party by 6 percent with 44.5 percent of the vote. In Şanlıurfa, the AK Party is anticipated to win by 43.5 percent, followed by BDP with 30.2 percent; whereas in Van, the AK Party and BDP will be neck and neck with only a 0.6 percent margin. In Erzurum, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and AK Party are expected to be the main competitors, with the AK Party at 42.5 percent and MHP with 35 percent of the vote.

Similar results are expected in other parts of the country with the AK Party gaining 42.6 percent in Bursa and 32 percent in Balıkesir, and CHP gaining 29 percent and 27.4 percent, respectively. Overall, the AK Party is expected to receive over 45 percent of the total vote in Turkey, with CHP following at 29.3 percent, MHP with 15.1 percent and the alliance of the People's Democracy Party (HDP) and BDP with 6.2 percent.

GENAR's recent polls suggest a similar trend where the AK Party is expected to receive 48.8 percent of the vote, followed by 28 percent for CHP. GENAR President İhsan Aktaş made important remarks about the survey. He said CHP is experiencing a 5 percent surge in its votes but it is insufficient for CHP candidate Mustafa Sarıgül to win the local election in Istanbul, whereas the AK Party's Kadir Topbaş is expected to receive 50 percent of the vote. Aktaş also indicated that the AK Party will be pushing in İzmir, where the gap between the AK Party and CHP has decreased to 7 percent with former Minister of Transportation Binali Yıldırım as the candidate.

ANAR's results also present a similar outlook on the upcoming election with the AK Party predicted to receive over 48 percent of votes, followed by CHP with 30 percent. ANAR President İbrahim Uslu noted that CHP will be mainly losing in Ankara because they chose a strategically unsuitable candidate. "If CHP nominated a centerright candidate, they could gain votes from MHP voters," said Uslu, who expressed it was not possible for CHP to win the local elections without support from other parties. He also said the local elections were significant as they would determine the fate of the upcoming presidential elections.

The surveys present an overall view of public opinion on the upcoming local elections in Turkey and were conducted based on face-toface and telephone interviews.

Turkey experiences free and fair elections and has a transparent system to ensure every vote counts, as observed and praised by the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, the leading election observation agency in Europe. The current allegations regarding the rigging of upcoming local elections are completely unfounded and unrealistic in the context of Turkey, as democratic grounds and institutions of the country would not authorize such an incident.