With only weeks left before Turkey's first-ever direct presidential election a recent survey published by polling company Optimar predicted that Justice and Development Party (AK Party) presidential candidate and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will be elected president in the first round on Aug. 10 with 53.8 percent of the vote while Ekmeleddin İhsanoğlu, the Republican People's Party (CHP) and Nationalist Movement Party's (MHP) joint presidential candidate and former head of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), will receive 38.4 percent of the vote. Pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) presidential candidate Selahattin Demirtaş, who is a popular political figure among Kurds, is expected to lag far behind with 7.8 percent.
A significant prediction is presented in the survey for the MHP and CHP. While the main opposition parties nominated İhsanoğlu with an aim to change the balance of power in politics and garner each social segment's vote, the survey said that only 58 percent of social democrats, 56 percent of Kemalists, 35 percent of nationalists, 80 percent of Turkish idealists and 42 percent of socialists stated that they would vote for İhsanoğlu.
Considering his Islamic background that caused a stir in the CHP, which has secular political vision, İhsanoğlu would only take 11 percent of conservative and 3.3 percent of Islamists' votes, according to the poll. The survey said that 81 percent of Islamists, 77 percent of conservatives, 47 percent of democrats, 42 percent of liberals, 24 percent of Kemalists, 44 percent of nationalists and 6.5 percent of socialists will vote for Erdoğan.
According to the survey, 37.7 percent of socialists, 19 percent of democrats, 11 percent of social democrats and 6 percent of liberals will vote for Demirtaş while 3.6 percent of idealists and 0.9 percent of nationalists will vote for him.
The survey indicated that İhsanoğlu will fail to garner the targeted segment's vote even though his candidacy was promoted by the CHP and MHP as a "great compromise" and he is described as an "inclusive" candidate for the entire nation. Contrary to İhsanoğlu, Erdoğan is the candidate who is expected to get the votes of people with different political identities in the presidential race.
Since all of the candidates were announced for the presidential race, polls have poured in from across the country. A poll conducted by Pollmark predicted that Erdoğan would receive 51.4 percent of the vote while İhsanoğlu would be behind with 39.4 percent and Demirtaş would only receive 7.2 percent. Pollmark's poll indicated that Erdoğan might take the presidential seat in the first round of the election. GENAR released a public survey regarding the presidential election last week. The survey predicted that Erdoğan would receive 55.2 percent and İhsanoğlu would receive 35.8 percent of the vote.
According to the pro-CHP pollster SONAR, Erdoğan would defeat İhsanoğlu. Among the 2,800 people surveyed who live in 26 cities, 46 percent say that they will vote for Erdoğan. The numbe of those who said that they will vote for İhsanoğlu is around 35.3 percent. 6.2 percent of those surveyed stated that they will vote for Demirtaş. The survey says that the votes of those who remain undecided will be split between the candidates, which will increase Erdoğan's total to 52.6 percent and İhsanoğlu to 40.3 percent.
A survey conducted by the Ankara-based Objective Research Center (ORC) indicated that 54 percent of the people surveyed will vote for Erdoğan and 39.4 percent of them will vote for İhsanoğlu while 6.6 percent say that they will vote for Demirtaş.