Finland is likely to join NATO before Sweden does, although the latter’s membership is “only a matter of time,” according to Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, despite standing opposition from Türkiye to the Swedish bid.
“It has been clear since NATO’s Madrid summit in June that Finland’s road into membership has been smoother than Sweden’s, and that it is now increasingly likely that Finland will enter NATO first,” Kristersson told a news conference in Stockholm on Tuesday, days after trilateral talks resumed between the sides.
Türkiye has been resolute in its demands from both nations, particularly Sweden, about concrete action regarding members and sympathizers of terrorist groups like the PKK, its Syrian offshoot the YPG and the Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ).
Under the tripartite memorandum inked in Madrid, Sweden and Finland pledged to show full solidarity and cooperation with Türkiye in the fight against terrorism in all its forms and manifestations, against all threats to its national security.
But talks ground to a halt in late January after Sweden authorized a far-right figure to burn a copy of the Quran in front of the Turkish Embassy in Stockholm and allowed terrorist PKK supporters to hold anti-Türkiye rallies.
Ankara has been clear it has greater objections to Sweden's accession than Finland's, and Kristersson said Türkiye's position in that regard still remained, meaning the two Nordic countries might not join together as they prefer.
Last month, Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said Ankara has fewer problems with Finland joining.
Since announcing their intention to join the military alliance in May last year, Finland and Sweden have consistently stressed that they would become members of the military alliance at the same time “hand in hand.”
Now, however, Kristersson told reporters, "it’s not out of the question that Sweden and Finland will be ratified in different stages.”
The ultimate decision is in Türkiye’s hands and Sweden is ready to handle a situation where Finland enters NATO without Sweden, Kristersson noted.
He repeated what NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has said previously, that it would only be a delay.
"Basically, this is not about whether Sweden becomes a NATO member but about when Sweden becomes a NATO member,” Kristersson said.
At the meeting in Brussels last week, Türkiye acknowledged that Sweden and Finland have taken concrete steps to meet Ankara's concerns and the three countries agreed to hold further meetings as part of the NATO process.
Sweden has said it has fulfilled its part of the Madrid memorandum. As part of its efforts to reassure Türkiye it is taking its fears over militants seriously, the Swedish parliament is due to pass new anti-terrorism legislation.
All 30 existing members of NATO have to approve a new member and 28 of them have already done so for both countries.
Hungarian lawmakers earlier this month started debating the Nordic duo’s membership bids and Budapest may ratify them by the end of March, leaving Türkiye as the final holdout.
It says it is still seeking the two countries to implement their commitments under the deal.
Kristersson previously said other alliance members were putting pressure on Ankara to speed up ratification but Turkish officials have stressed their country’s “full support for NATO’s open-door policy” and that “There is no stalling on the part of Türkiye here. This is purely about our security concerns being addressed.”
Presidential Spokesperson Ibrahim Kalın last week revealed Ankara was “aware” the upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius this July was often marked as a “deadline” for ratification and said, “Türkiye will maintain its constructive attitude in bolstering the NATO alliance.”
"The steps Sweden and Finland will take from now on will determine the speed and scope of the process,” he noted.
