Voters increasingly turn to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as Türkiye nears its critical presidential and parliamentary elections. Two surveys whose results were released on Monday put Erdoğan ahead of his main rival Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and indicate that he will win in the first round of the May 14 elections.
Erdoğan faces his toughest test, yet in more than two decades, he led his Justice and Development Party (AK Party) to victory in successive elections. This time, the opposition is more united and accepted the leadership of Republican People’s Party (CHP) Chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. Kılıçdaroğlu is the only viable candidate against Erdoğan. However, the CHP lost every election under his leadership, as the main opposition bloc comprises political parties with few voters.
A poll by survey company Areda conducted with 17,400 people across the country between April 15 and April 20 shows Erdoğan would win 51.4% of the vote. Kılıçdaroğlu garners 41.8% of the vote while he is followed by Muharrem Ince and Sinan Oğan, who would win 4.6% and 2.2% of the vote, respectively. Ince is the second option for the traditional CHP electorate as a former party member and claims to pursue a more nationalist ideology than the current CHP administration. Sinan Oğan, an academic nominated by the Ancestral Alliance of small parties, represents a far-right ideology.
According to Areda’s survey, Erdoğan would win 53.5% of the vote if the election goes to a second round, while Kılıçdaroğlu would win only 46.5% of the vote. According to the survey, Erdoğan’s AK Party garners 41.1% of the vote. CHP follows it with 25.4%. The Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), which will compete under the name of the Green Left Party (YSP) in the elections, still has above 10% of the vote, far ahead of parties in both the opposition alliance and People’s Alliance led by the AK Party. Muharrem Ince’s Homeland Party (MP) succumbs to the election threshold rule and would win only 3.3% of the vote, according to the survey.
Another poll by survey company Sonar shows Erdoğan would win 52.1% of the vote, ahead of Kılıçdaroğlu’s 47.9% in a possible second round. This rate drops to 46.1% for Erdoğan and 44.1% for Kılıçdaroğlu in the first round. Sonar’s survey indicates the AK Party would win 38.2% of the vote in parliamentary elections versus CHP’s 24.2%. CHP’s main ally Good Party (IP), would win 13.4% of the legislative vote, while HDP scored 10.1% in the same survey.
