The main opposition, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), remains firm in its belief that Türkiye will hold an early election before the scheduled 2028 vote. To that extent, it mulls picking a candidate as surveys show the process is narrowed down to two “popular” mayors of the party.
Encouraged by unprecedented wins in last year’s municipal elections, the CHP slowly built up expectations for an early election in the past months. The high cost of living, which the party squarely blamed on the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party), drove up the CHP’s ambitious campaign to attract disillusioned voters.
Speaking to reporters in Izmir, a CHP stronghold in western Türkiye, the party’s chair Özgür Özel said on Saturday that the process was continuing as they were asking opinions from “all elected members of the party.” “We may have a difference of opinion, but we respect them,” Özel, who always emphasizes intraparty democracy despite frequent reports of infighting within the party.
“We are preparing for the elections and launched a process to select a candidate. The candidate will be picked by some 1.6 million party members,” he said. Özel noted that they also started a campaign to recruit new members “so that people can have a say on choosing their own candidate.” The CHP is the second biggest party after the AK Party and has always been a runner-up in past elections, although it has never won a general or legislative election against the former in more than two decades. Before the AK Party, the CHP rarely governed Türkiye after it lost to the Democrat Party (DP) in the 1950 elections.
Özel said they’ve seen a “10-12 fold” increase in the number of membership applications online, and they kept their local offices open late into the night throughout the week to admit new applications.
The CHP chair said last year that he wouldn’t seek presidential candidacy and underlined that he favored Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu and Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş as potential candidates for the 2028 vote. Surveys by several polling companies show Yavaş ahead of Imamoğlu as a potential candidate. Imamoğlu is embroiled in many legal troubles and may face a political ban if convicted. Last week, he was summoned to testify after his accusations toward an expert witness assigned to cases related to irregularities and corruption in municipalities Imamoğlu run, including Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IBB) and the Istanbul district municipality of Beylikdüzü he governed before winning the IBB election in 2019.
No political party has officially announced its presidential candidate. However, on Jan. 14, the AK Party spokesperson said that the incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's candidacy in the upcoming elections is on their agenda. He stated that if the public wants to see him, Erdoğan may run again.
Erdoğan was elected president in 2023 in his first runoff, cementing his place in Turkish politics. He dominated as prime minister and president for more than two decades, a record for any Turkish politician. His tenure will end in 2028. He is serving his last term as president unless Parliament calls an early election, according to the Constitution.
Another Erdoğan term is possible through a constitutional change that could be put to a referendum. It will need the approval of 360 lawmakers in Parliament. The AK Party and its main ally, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), fall short of the required number of seats in Parliament. Similarly, an early election would need the support of 360 lawmakers in the 600-seat Parliament. But the opposition's support for Erdoğan’s candidacy may pave the way for this process.
It is unclear who the AK Party will pick if Erdoğan decides not to run again. He remains the favorite candidate, even for the CHP, whose unlucky streak against the AK Party was partly broken when it defeated some AK Party mayors in the March 31, 2023, vote. The CHP seeks to boast about defeating the country’s almost invincible leader, while Özel recently said it would be “a healthy democratic process” if Erdoğan runs again and they win against him.
