Türkiye's ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) has regained the lead in voter support, reaching 31.9% in an October election survey by MetroPOLL Research, while the New Party (YP) suffered a sharp decline, falling to 25% after leading by more than 10 percentage points in July.
The survey, comparing voter preferences in July and October 2026, revealed significant shifts in support for major political parties, with the AK Party overtaking its closest rival by 6.9 percentage points.
According to the results, which were calculated after proportionally distributing undecided voters, nonresponses and protest votes, the AK Party increased its support by 2.92 percentage points from 28.98% in July to 31.9% in October.
The New Party, which topped the July survey with 39.2%, recorded the steepest decline among the parties surveyed, losing 14.2 percentage points to fall to 25% and second place.
The reversal marks a significant shift from July, when the YP held a 10.22-percentage-point advantage over the ruling party.
The Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) registered the largest increase in voter support, climbing 3.61 percentage points from 6.99% in July to 10.6% in October, placing third.
The Good Party (IP) also recorded a notable increase, rising 3.45 percentage points from 5.05% to 8.5%.
The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), the AK Party's governing alliance partner, increased its support from 4.66% to 6.6%, a gain of 1.94 percentage points.
Meanwhile, the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) saw its support edge down from 3.75% to 3.5%, according to the figures provided in the survey report.
The New Welfare Party (YRP) increased its share from 2.2% to 3.4%, while the Key Party (Anahtar Party) rose from 1.68% to 3.2%.
According to the October report, undecided voters and protest responses accounted for 27.8% of respondents before their proportional redistribution among political parties.
The adjusted results placed the AK Party first, followed by the YP, DEM Party, IP and MHP.
The findings suggest a substantial reshuffling of voter preferences between July and October, although the figures represent polling estimates rather than actual election results.
Moreover, presidential chief adviser Mehmet Uçum recently said the Constitution allows Erdoğan to seek reelection if Parliament votes to call early elections, suggesting April 16, 2028, as his preferred date to coincide with the anniversary of Türkiye's 2017 constitutional referendum.
Uçum argued that bringing forward the vote would not constitute an early election in the traditional sense but rather an adjustment to enable Erdoğan's candidacy.
He cited the 2023 presidential election, which was held on May 14 instead of its originally scheduled June 18 date, as a precedent.
He further claimed that around 500 lawmakers could support a parliamentary decision to renew elections, adding that Erdoğan's candidacy was politically settled but still required legal authorization.
Under Article 116 of Türkiye's Constitution, Parliament can call for renewed presidential and parliamentary elections with a three-fifths majority, requiring at least 360 votes in the 600-seat legislature.
The ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and its Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) ally currently hold 331 seats, meaning they would need support from at least 29 opposition lawmakers.
Erdoğan was elected president under Türkiye's current presidential system in 2018 and 2023. The Constitution generally limits presidents to two terms but provides an exception when Parliament renews elections during a president's second term.
