Sitting on the southeastern tip of the continent, Türkiye means a lot to Europe. Yet, it has never been a full member of the exclusive club of the European Union despite its ambition. The bloc, however, may have to realize Türkiye’s role as a key defender for its security.
Türkiye, with NATO's second-largest army and a Black Sea coastline, is looking to play a key role in Europe's security after Washington's pivot away from the region. After two rounds of crisis talks on Ukraine and security following Washington's change of policy, Ankara has been quick to warn that European defenses cannot be ensured without its involvement.
"It is inconceivable to establish European security without Türkiye," President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said after last Sunday's London summit.
Without Türkiye, "it is becoming increasingly impossible for Europe to continue its role as a global actor," he added.
A senior Turkish Defense Ministry official returned to the issue on Thursday.
"With the security parameters being reshaped due to recent developments, it is impossible to ensure European security without Türkiye," he said. Even so, he said Türkiye would be ready to deploy troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping mission "if deemed necessary."
Ankara has consistently defended Ukraine's territorial integrity since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began in 2022 and supplied Ukraine with combat drones and naval vessels. But it has also maintained good ties with Russia and remains the only NATO member not to have joined the sanctions against Moscow.
With its unique position between the two warring parties, Türkiye has repeatedly offered to host peace talks.
Erdoğan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan have often received visitors such as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
In recent years, Türkiye has considerably developed its defense industries, with exports growing by 29% to reach $7.1 billion in 2024, placing it 11th in global defense exports, Erdoğan said in January.
Driving its success are the Bayraktar TB2 drones, which have been sold to more than 25 nations, among them Poland and Romania, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies' (IISS) Military Balance survey.
"Sales to European countries, particularly EU members, add credibility to Türkiye's argument that it is an important player in European security," said IISS expert Tom Waldyn.
Its military, strategically located on the eastern flank of the Atlantic Alliance and south of the Black Sea, controls access via the Bosporus and counts 373,200 active troops and another 378,700 reservists, IISS figures show.
And these troops have been engaged in regular combat in northeastern Syria and northern Iraq fighting PKK terrorists, according to a Western diplomat.
"Türkiye has maintained a consistent attitude in line with the U.N. Charter on the sovereignty and territorial integrity" of Ukraine, he told Agence France-Presse (AFP). "It has the second largest military in NATO but also the most effective as it's been in combat for decades," he explained. But EU cooperation with Ankara has been hampered by the Cyprus dispute, he said with a trace of exasperation. "How long can we afford to continue this stance?"
For Nebahat Tanrıverdi Yaşar, an independent researcher and policy analyst who works in Ankara and Berlin, Türkiye's careful management of its ties with both Kyiv and Moscow has left it in a unique position.
"(Türkiye) aims to carefully navigate its relations with Russia and its strategic defense support to Ukraine, potentially with EU backing, to reshape the balance of power in the region amid the emergence of a 'new order' where the EU seeks to assume greater responsibility for its security amid shifting U.S. policies," she told AFP. Given the challenges that entailed, Ankara was "likely to pursue a pragmatic approach in the short term, focusing on expanding its mediation efforts, deepening defense cooperation with select European states, and leveraging its defense industry to address emerging gaps in military support," she added.
But Sümbül Kaya, a political scientist in France, argued that Türkiye was "above all, driven by a desire to defend its own interests." "It only intervenes in neighboring countries for internal security reasons, such as Syria and Iraq," she said.
"But there's no question of sending troops to fight wars everywhere – that would not go down well with the population." “This crisis is an opportunity to stress that Türkiye is both a NATO member and a candidate for membership in the EU,” Kaya said.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is among the EU leaders who realize Türkiye’s importance in defending Europe. As he addressed the lower house of the Polish Parliament last week, Tusk said Europe needed “walls outside, not inside” for defense. He stated that Poland was looking for formats outside standards to “increase the effectiveness of our actions for Poland’s security.” He said his visit to Türkiye next week will focus on talks for Türkiye’s greater involvement in that matter. “Türkiye is ready to work to stabilize the situation in the region,” Tusk said.
Tusk was serving as president of the European Council when the latter negotiated a deal with Türkiye to curb the flow of migrants into Europe, especially at a time of heightened influx of Syrian refugees and migrants fleeing a raging civil war next door to Türkiye. The 2016 deal succeeded to a point where it saved Europe from the burden of migrants and the trouble of more efficient ways to end irregular migration overall, namely by addressing core problems leading to it. Türkiye hosted a large population of Syrian refugees whose needs were partially covered by EU funds as part of a deal. Yet, visa-free travel in Europe for Turkish citizens, a pledge cited in the deal, was not fulfilled, while the EU stalled membership talks for Türkiye, which appears to turn to the EU only when in trouble.
"It is important for Türkiye to be included in mechanisms such as the European Peace Facility, which aims for reconstruction and revitalization of Ukraine,” Erdoğan told an online meeting organized by the EU last week that focused on Europe's security. Türkiye believes that planning all steps on European security together with Ankara would be “in our mutual interest,” he added at the meeting on Friday.
“We believe there is no explanation for our exclusion from the EU's defense product procurement and reconstruction programs, given the support of our defense industry to Ukraine and the contributions of our private sector, which did not leave the country despite the war conditions." He reiterated that European security does not only concern members of the EU. “With all these efforts, it is without doubt essential to get the strong support of our ally the U.S. and protect trans-Atlantic ties at a maximum,” he continued.
A day earlier, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said, “A sustainable and deterrent security architecture for the EU is only possible with the participation of Türkiye." "The issue of Europe's security cannot be reduced solely to the war in Ukraine. The topic of Europe's security architecture must be addressed from a long-term and strategic perspective. In this context, a sustainable and deterrent security architecture is only possible with Türkiye's participation," Fidan said while addressing a joint news conference with his Croatian counterpart, Gordan Grlic Radman, in Ankara.
