NATO's support for Türkiye in the event of escalating regional tensions would not only back Ankara but also test the alliance's readiness, a security expert said Wednesday at a roundtable discussion in Paris on Türkiye-NATO relations.
Murat Aslan, a faculty member at Hasan Kalyoncu University and a senior researcher at the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETA) think tank, warned that the recent U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran could expand and potentially spread toward the Gulf region.
He said any escalation would inevitably affect the interests of both Türkiye and NATO.
Aslan also said modern conflicts increasingly involve confrontations between states and non-state actors, requiring what he described as a "hybrid response" combining military, political and security measures.
Presidential Chief Adviser Çağrı Erhan said the rules-based international order built around the U.N. system after World War II is facing growing pressure.
Speaking at the discussion, Erhan said global developments since the COVID-19 pandemic have pushed the world into a more uncertain period marked by rising security risks, fragile economic conditions and growing protectionism.
The meeting, hosted by the Turkish Embassy in Paris, brought together nearly 30 French and Turkish journalists to discuss Türkiye-NATO relations as well as developments in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war.
"The rules-based international order is under attack from all sides," Erhan said. "Right now, no one is talking about international law. Everything on the table is based solely on national interests. No one is talking about cooperation. We do not know what kind of new international order will emerge," he noted.
Erhan also warned that the Russia-Ukraine war remains a major concern and that the ongoing conflict involving the U.S., Israel and Iran could escalate further.
He added that disruptions to global trade and supply chains are becoming an increasing risk.
Erhan noted that Türkiye will host an upcoming NATO summit in Ankara that will bring together leaders of NATO member states and other international partners.
"At the summit, we will discuss strengthening NATO's defense against emerging security and defense risks," he said.
Kılıç Buğra Kanat, research director at SETA in Washington, said Türkiye has experience dealing with instability and civil wars along its borders but warned that the latest attacks in the Middle East could trigger wider regional instability.
He said defense spending among Middle Eastern countries is likely to rise even if the attacks stop.
"If the conflict continues and any kind of civil war emerges in Iran, the consequences would be significant," he said.
Kanat stressed the importance of preventing further escalation, noting that populations across the region are exhausted after years of conflict.
He added that the recent attacks have already begun to influence global energy prices and that their social, political and security effects may soon become more visible.
"What happens in the Middle East does not stay in the Middle East. We saw this in other conflicts in Syria and Iraq," he said.
On March 4, a ballistic projectile fired from Iran and heading toward Turkish airspace was intercepted and neutralized by NATO air and missile defense elements deployed in the Eastern Mediterranean, Türkiye’s Defense Ministry announced.
On March 9, NATO-member Türkiye said it also shot down a ballistic missile fired from Iran, in the second such incident in five days. Some fragments from the weaponry fell in open territory in the southern Gaziantep area, causing no injuries, the Defense Ministry announced.
Türkiye summoned Iran's ambassador to Ankara to convey a formal protest and expressed deep concern over the incident. Officials stressed that any steps that could expand ongoing conflicts or further destabilize the region must be avoided.
Following the missile incidents, several organizations and states condemned the attack and voiced solidarity with Türkiye, including NATO, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), Spain, the UAE, Albania, Belgium, Pakistan and Italy.
The developments came amid the ongoing U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran, launched on Feb. 28, which have so far killed more than 1,000 people, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and top Iranian officials.
