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To fall or not to fall into the trap of war in the Black Sea

by Nur Özkan Erbay

ANKARA Feb 03, 2022 - 10:51 am GMT+3
A convoy of Russian armored vehicles moves along a highway in Crimea, Ukraine, Jan. 18, 2022. (AP Photo)
A convoy of Russian armored vehicles moves along a highway in Crimea, Ukraine, Jan. 18, 2022. (AP Photo)
by Nur Özkan Erbay Feb 03, 2022 10:51 am
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President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will be traveling to Kyiv at the invitation of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

The 10th meeting of the High-Level Strategic Council, the highest advisory body between Ukraine and Turkey, will be held with the participation of both countries' ministers to review all aspects of the strategic partnership. The agenda also includes the signing of an array of agreements and memorandums that will make a significant contribution to the foundation of bilateral relations.

In addition to bilateral ties, regional and international issues will also be discussed at the gathering.

Considering that Ukraine is on the verge of becoming the most important area of dispute on the East-West axis, this visit is especially important not only for Kyiv and Ankara but the region and world.

Last week, Erdoğan offered to mediate between the leaders of both Russia and Ukraine to establish peace, an invitation that was positively received by both countries. The first step of this process will be taken today. Russian leader Vladimir Putin is expected to arrive in Turkey at the end of February after the meeting between Erdoğan and Zelenskyy.

Both Kyiv and Moscow see Ankara's influence and sincerity in this matter, its sobriety despite the tensions and its fair attitude that addresses the concerns of both sides.

Contrarily, it is clear from Moscow's dissatisfaction with NATO's unconvincing response to its demands and the recent meeting between Zelenskyy and U.S. President Joe Biden that Western countries were unable to instill confidence in Ukraine and Russia, which are parties to the conflict.

From this point on, there is a possibility of war with great risks for both sides. In addition, the conflict is projected to have destructive effects throughout the entire Black Sea region, which has been one of Ankara's primary concerns since tensions began stirring. Countries in the region will be the first to pay the actual cost of the crisis, while conversely, the rest of Europe, the United Kingdom and the United States will be mostly unaffected.

However, from this point of view, many European countries are conscious of the fact that they have decoupled with the U.K. and U.S. on the issue, and that a war between Russia and Ukraine has no return for them and the union.

This can also be clearly seen from the occasional statements by German and French authorities.

In other words, it is unacceptable that the Biden administration now perceives the threat to be emanating from China and the Pacific, while NATO and the countries in the region are left to face the risks of its geopolitical strategy of encircling and clamping down on Russia.

On the other hand, the price that the U.K. will pay, whose hostile relations with Russia are too obvious to hide, will not be more than that of the Black Sea and European Union countries.

Moreover, it is obvious that the United States, which is threatening Russia with economic sanctions, does not think much about the EU countries and, more importantly, Ukraine in this regard.

Many EU countries, particularly Germany, have great concerns about meeting their energy needs, and the last thing the Ukrainian economy needs to remain propped up is a war with exorbitant humanitarian and economic costs.

In addition, Moscow's persistent denial of a potential war breaking out and Washington's war-mongering rhetoric, drilling in that there will be an invasion at any moment, forces countries in the region to face the facts.

In light of all these developments, it becomes clear once again how pragmatic and necessary Turkey's mediation role is.

We can assume that Russia and Ukraine will choose not to ignore these facts even if the region is on the brink of a war that will cause irreparable geopolitical damage.

Especially after the fall of Afghanistan, the fact that the U.S. secured a free victory over Russia without incurring a cost could be reason enough to not enter war from the Ukrainian and Russian perspectives.

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