A National Intelligence Academy (MIA) official said Tuesday that recent positive rhetoric surrounding talks between Iran and the U.S. should be viewed with caution, warning that the underlying tensions between the two countries remain unresolved and could still escalate.
Speaking to Anadolu Agency (AA) reporters on the sidelines of a program titled “Türkiye-Africa Strategic Dialogue,” held in Ankara, Hakkı Uygur addressed questions about rising regional tensions and the status of Iran-U.S. negotiations.
Uygur said it was premature to suggest that long-running disputes between Washington and Tehran had eased, despite both sides describing recent negotiations as constructive.
“I think these talks should be interpreted as attempts by both sides to buy time and play to their domestic audiences,” Uygur said. “It is far too early to say the problems have been resolved.”
He noted that similar diplomatic engagements in the past had failed to prevent conflict. Uygur recalled that earlier rounds of talks between Iran and the U.S. were held in Oman, followed by what he described as the outbreak of a 12-day conflict in June 2025 after the fifth round of negotiations.
“The two sides can talk on the one hand and still clash on the other,” Uygur said.
“While both claim the talks were positive, they continue to issue military threats and display naval power. That alone shows the situation has not stabilized.”
Uygur said military movements in the region, including U.S. naval deployments, increased coordination between U.S. and Israeli military officials, and the presence of British F-35 fighter jets in Cyprus, should be closely monitored. He added that such developments suggest both sides remain on high alert.
Turning to the substance of the negotiations, Uygur said Iran’s room for concessions is limited, while demands from U.S. President Donald Trump are extensive. He said key questions remain unanswered, including what Iran would receive in return for halting uranium enrichment and how quickly sanctions could realistically be lifted.
Uygur referenced the 2015 nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, noting that sanctions relief was slow and incomplete even after Iran complied with the agreement. He added that Iran remains skeptical that meaningful economic benefits would follow any new concessions, particularly after Trump withdrew the U.S. from the deal during his previous term.
“Even if Iran does everything that is asked, it knows the gains may be limited,” Uygur said. “That explains why Tehran is proceeding cautiously.”
Uygur said recent comments by Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan advocating a step-by-step approach appear to have influenced the process, with the latest talks in Oman reportedly focused solely on the nuclear issue rather than broader regional disputes.
However, Uygur warned that even a potential agreement between Washington and Tehran could face obstacles from Israel. He said Israel has historically opposed any deal it views as legitimizing Iran’s regional influence.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to raise Iran as a key issue during an upcoming visit to Washington, Uygur said, adding that Israel could still take unilateral action even if the U.S. and Iran claim progress.
“Even if Iran and the United States say they have reached an understanding, Israel could take the initiative, as we have seen before,” Uygur said.
He concluded that while diplomacy continues, the risk of renewed confrontation remains high and the broader dispute is far from settled.
