Fenerbahçe arrive in Nottingham, Thursday, with their European season hanging by a thread and a daunting equation in front of them.
Beaten 3-0 in Istanbul last week, the Turkish side must produce one of the greatest comebacks in their continental history when they face Nottingham Forest in the second leg of the UEFA Europa League knockout round playoff.
The arithmetic is unforgiving. Fenerbahçe need a four-goal victory to progress outright. A three-goal win would force extra time and possibly penalties.
Any other result, including a narrow Forest defeat, sends the Premier League side into the last 16, where either Real Betis or FC Midtjylland await.
Forest seized control of the tie with ruthless efficiency in Istanbul.
Newly appointed head coach Vitor Pereira, facing his former club just days into the job, watched his side dominate from the outset.
Murillo opened the scoring, Igor Jesus doubled the lead and Morgan Gibbs-White added a third before the hour mark, completing a clinical display that stunned the home crowd.
It was not just the margin but the manner. Forest pressed high, transitioned quickly and exposed Fenerbahçe’s defensive gaps with alarming ease.
The 3-0 result stands as the club’s biggest away win in European competition.
Domestic reality remains tense. A 97th-minute winner conceded against Liverpool in the Premier League left Forest 17th, hovering just two points above the relegation zone.
Yet in Europe, they have found clarity. A third consecutive continental victory would mark their best run in the competition since the 1983-84 campaign.
Igor Jesus has been central to that surge. The Brazilian is joint top scorer in this season’s Europa League with seven goals and is expected to spearhead the attack again, potentially ahead of January arrival Lorenzo Lucca.
Gibbs-White, Elliot Anderson and Ryan Yates are all one booking away from suspension but remain key to Forest’s balance.
Injuries, however, have trimmed Pereira’s options. Chris Wood, Nicolo Savona, John Victor and Willy Boly are sidelined with knee issues, while goalkeeper Matz Sels is out with a groin problem. Luca Netz is ineligible for European action.
For Fenerbahçe, belief must outweigh precedent.
History offers little encouragement. The Yellow Canaries have never overturned a first-leg defeat in 26 previous European knockout ties.
Against English opposition, they have won just four of 22 encounters.
They have also claimed only one victory in their last six Europa League matches.
The personnel situation compounds the challenge. Fred and Jayden Oosterwolde are suspended, while Milan Skriniar, Çağlar Söyüncü, Anderson Talisca, Ederson and Edson Alvarez are ruled out through injury. Anthony Musaba and Mert Günok are not registered for the competition.
The defensive shortage is acute. Yiğit Efe stands as the only natural center back available, forcing coach Domenico Tedesco to consider reshuffling, with Mert Müldür or Matteo Guendouzi possible emergency solutions at the heart of the back line.
Yet there is context that fuels hope. Fenerbahçe are unbeaten in 14 away matches in all competitions since September.
Domestically, they remain firmly in the Süper Lig title race. A dramatic 1-1 draw with Kasımpaşa on Monday extended their unbeaten league run to 23 matches and kept them within two points of leaders Galatasaray.
The contrast is stark. At home in Europe, they have stumbled. On the road in all competitions, they have thrived.
Everything to chase, everything to protect
Forest can approach the night with structure and patience, protecting a three-goal cushion in front of a raucous City Ground.
Fenerbahçe must attack without recklessness, score early and withstand the counterattacking threat that punished them in the first leg.
