Real Madrid hold the edge heading into Wednesday’s Champions League last-16 second leg against Atletico Madrid, carrying a 2-1 lead from last week’s gripping first leg at the Santiago Bernabeu.
Brahim Diaz’s late strike sealed victory for Carlo Ancelotti’s side after Rodrygo and Julian Alvarez traded sensational goals in a tense battle.
Now, Los Blancos return to a venue where history has been less kind to them, but with their pedigree, they remain favorites to advance.
The Champions League has long been Real Madrid’s playground – especially against Atletico.
From the heartbreak of the 2014 and 2016 finals to the 2017 semifinals, Los Blancos have always found a way past their city rivals in Europe.
Yet, Atleti’s recent dominance in cup competitions offers hope. Diego Simeone’s men are unbeaten in their last five knockout clashes against Real, winning four.
History also suggests a comeback is possible.
Atletico have lost the first leg in a Champions League knockout tie six times but overturned the deficit on three occasions – all at home.
Their fortress at the Metropolitano has been nearly impenetrable in Europe, boasting an 18-match unbeaten run in home knockout fixtures dating back to 1997.
However, their recent form raises concerns. A crushing 3-2 loss at Getafe on Sunday – where Mauro Arambarri struck twice late – was a gut punch for a side already trailing in the La Liga title race.
Now third and playing one game more than leaders Barcelona, a European exit would be a severe blow to their season.
Los Blancos know they will have to be at their best at the Metropolitano, a ground that hasn’t been kind to them.
After winning eight straight away derbies at the Vicente Calderon between 2008 and 2014, Real have triumphed in just three of their last 17 visits since Atletico moved to their new home.
In European clashes, they’ve never won away to Atletico in three attempts.
Yet, Real’s Champions League aura remains unshaken.
Their victory last week made them the first club to reach 500 matches and 300 wins in the competition.
Ancelotti’s side have now won five straight Champions League knockout matches and are unbeaten in their last 10 in this stage – their longest streak in history.
Crucially, Los Blancos know how to finish the job.
In 22 previous ties where they won the first leg, they advanced 21 times, the lone exception being against Ajax in 2019.
Under Ancelotti, they’re a perfect nine-for-nine.
Both sides rotated for the weekend fixtures, but Atleti have nearly a full squad.
Cesar Azpilicueta’s return bolsters Simeone’s options, leaving Koke as the only major absentee.
Nahuel Molina and Robin Le Normand, who started against Getafe, could retain their spots, while Marcos Llorente’s role may shift depending on Pablo Barrios’ inclusion.
Alvarez, whose rocket at the Bernabeu made him just the third Atleti player this century to score in successive derbies at Real, will again partner Antoine Griezmann up front.
Ancelotti fielded a strong side against Rayo Vallecano despite the demanding schedule.
Vinicius Junior, Jude Bellingham, Kylian Mbappe, and Rodrygo all started in a 2-1 win that was far from convincing – Real were outshot 20-10 and dominated in possession.
Dani Ceballos remains out with a hamstring injury, while Dani Carvajal and Eder Militao are long-term absentees.
However, Antonio Rudiger and Thibaut Courtois should be available after missing the Rayo match.
Fede Valverde, Eduardo Camavinga, and Ferland Mendy – rested at the weekend – are set to return, with Bellingham’s comeback from suspension likely pushing Diaz to the bench despite his heroics last week.
