Manchester City host Newcastle United on Wednesday night, knowing a place at Wembley is firmly within reach, while the defending EFL Cup holders face the steepest of uphill tasks to keep their title defense alive.
City carry a 2-0 advantage into the second leg at the Etihad Stadium after goals from Antoine Semenyo and Rayan Cherki settled the opening meeting at St James’ Park. The winner of the all-Premier League semifinal will meet either Arsenal or Chelsea in the final on March 22.
For Pep Guardiola, the equation is familiar. City have progressed from five of the previous six League Cup semifinals in which they won the first leg, falling short only once, against Manchester United in 2010.
Another final would move City closer to a ninth League Cup title, second only to Liverpool’s 10 and mark their first appearance in the showpiece since lifting the trophy in 2021.
Yet this return to cup duty comes amid subtle but growing unease. City’s recent run (W2 D1 L2) has exposed an unusual fragility, most glaringly in Sunday’s 2-2 draw at Tottenham, where they became victims of a rare collapse after leading by two goals at halftime.
It was the first time since 2018 that City failed to win such a position and it underlined a worrying trend: six goals scored before halftime and six conceded after the break in league play this calendar year.
Those second-half lapses have cost City momentum in the title race, opening a six-point gap to leaders Arsenal with 14 matches remaining.
Even so, the Etihad remains a fortress. City have won 14 of 18 home games in all competitions this season and have beaten Newcastle in each of their last 11 meetings in Manchester, running up a staggering 37-3 aggregate score, including a 4-0 league win last February.
Newcastle’s challenge borders on historic.
Their 10-match winning streak in the competition, stretching back to the start of last season, ended in the first leg, made more painful by conceding a second goal in the 98th minute.
Eddie Howe called it a “body blow,” but not a knockout, insisting his side remain “in the fight.”
Statistics argue otherwise. Only one team has overturned a two-goal deficit in a League Cup semifinal, Aston Villa in 1994 and Newcastle’s away form has been brittle.
They have won just three of 16 road matches in all competitions this season and were undone again at the weekend, surrendering a lead before losing 4-1 at Liverpool to remain 10th in the Premier League.
Still, Newcastle cling to slivers of encouragement. They have eliminated City from the League Cup twice before, including a 2-0 win at the Etihad in 2014 and beat Guardiola’s side 2-1 in the league in November.
A second victory over City this season would be their first such double since 1983-84.
Team news may shape the contest.
City defender Ruben Dias has returned to training but is unlikely to feature, while Jeremy Doku, Josko Gvardiol, John Stones, Mateo Kovacic and Savinho remain unavailable. Guardiola is expected to keep changes minimal, though goalkeeper James Trafford could replace Gianluigi Donnarumma.
Cherki, operating centrally, is chasing a rare milestone, a goal in four consecutive League Cup appearances, while Semenyo’s growing influence could again earn him a central role alongside Erling Haaland, with Omar Marmoush pressing for inclusion.
Newcastle’s concerns are more acute. Bruno Guimaraes is a doubt with an ankle injury, while Sven Botman and Lewis Miley continue to manage fitness issues.
With Joelinton, Tino Livramento, Fabian Schar and Emil Krafth still sidelined, Howe may be forced into further improvisation. After deploying a striker-less attack at Liverpool, he could turn to Nick Woltemade or Yoane Wissa to add a focal point, especially if Newcastle are to chase early goals.
