Aryna Sabalenka began the clay-court season last month in commanding form, but as she arrives in Paris for another bid at Roland Garros glory, signs of vulnerability have emerged in her otherwise dominant run.
The world No. 1 and four-time Grand Slam champion still holds a lead of more than 1,000 ranking points over her nearest rivals. Still, the focus over the next fortnight will be on improving on last year’s runner-up finish in Paris, where she lost in three sets to Coco Gauff.
If her ambitions in the French capital mirror those of Jannik Sinner on the men’s side, both chasing a first Roland Garros title, Sabalenka’s grip on the women’s game no longer appears as unshakable as it once did.
Her season began in blistering fashion, sweeping the Sunshine Double at Indian Wells and Miami. She won three of her first four tournaments of the year, with her only defeat coming in a three-set loss to Elena Rybakina in the Australian Open final.
By the time she arrived in Madrid on a 15-match winning streak, expectations were high that she could extend her dominance on clay and add a fourth career title at the Caja Magica on the road to Roland Garros.
Instead, momentum stalled. A quarter-final defeat to 30th seed Hailey Baptiste ended her Madrid campaign early, before another setback at the Italian Open, where she fell in the third round to a resurgent Sorana Cirstea. Sabalenka later said she felt her body was “limiting me from performing at the highest level,” raising fresh questions about her physical edge heading into Paris.
“I guess we never lose; we only learn, so it’s OK,” Sabalenka said after exiting a WTA 1000 tournament at the round-of-32 stage for the first time since February 2025.
With the 28-year-old top seed now looking less certain on clay, the draw again appears wide open.
Rybakina, who beat Sabalenka in last season’s WTA Finals decider and again in Melbourne in January to claim her second major title, will be one of the main contenders despite never progressing beyond the quarterfinals at Roland Garros.
The Kazakh world No. 2 has arguably enjoyed the strongest season on tour this year outside Sabalenka and won indoors on clay in Stuttgart, but she also endured disappointing runs in Madrid and Rome.
Iga Swiatek, the erstwhile “queen of clay,” has recently shown flashes of the form that took her to world No. 1 and four Roland Garros titles in the early 2020s.
Since her last triumph in Paris two years ago, the 24-year-old has struggled for consistency but will hope her new collaboration with Rafael Nadal’s former coach Francisco Roig can help her rediscover her best tennis on a surface she once dominated.
Defending champion Gauff will not cede her title easily, and the world No. 4 enters the tournament on the back of a strong run in Rome, which ended in defeat in the final to in-form Elina Svitolina.
The 31-year-old Ukrainian has already won two titles this year, including a first WTA 1000 crown in eight years at the Italian Open, and will fancy a deep run in Paris after reaching the quarterfinals for the fifth time last year.
“(Winning Rome) gives me a lot of confidence. Gives me a good look at Roland Garros,” Svitolina said.
“But... there are really tough players. You cannot underestimate them. You need to be ready for the first-round matches, big battles. Everybody’s there to beat you.”
Alongside Svitolina, Madrid Open winner Marta Kostyuk, rising prospects Mirra Andreeva, Iva Jovic and Victoria Mboko, as well as Amanda Anisimova, will be among the dark horses for a maiden Grand Slam title.
