The “big one,” a massive earthquake predicted for Türkiye’s Marmara region where the country’s most populated city, Istanbul, is located, will likely hit the Aegean region soon, according to an earthquake expert studying the region.
Mining geology, earth sciences and earthquake specialist Serkan Içelli expressed his expectation of the occurrence of a major earthquake in Istanbul and stated that he was expecting a disastrous quake in the Aegean region.
“According to the calculations I made, the 1963 and 1999 series of earthquakes in Gölcük has relieved the stress in Marmara quite a bit. Hence, it is not possible for an earthquake over 5.8 to 6.2 in the Marmara Sea," he said.
"The Aegean region is a very complex place for us. Unfortunately, we do not follow that region very well. Especially the area under the island of Crete, called the Hellenic Arc, is dangerously prone to earthquakes. This region has previously produced earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 and is now causing the biggest earthquakes. In terms of our country, a tsunami may occur in parts of Muğla," he explained.
"First of all, you need to know the annual sliding rate of that fracture, the earthquake repetition period and the largest earthquake it produced and analyze it with various formulas accordingly," he added.
Içelli stated that there will not be a major earthquake in the Marmara region in the next 10 to 15 years and said: “Of course, there will be an earthquake in Marmara, but it will not exceed the magnitude of 7.0. Because Istanbul has never witnessed such a big earthquake throughout history. In 1963, the tremors that started in May and continued in sequence lost the potential and energy on the fault line there."
"After an earthquake, the trigger mechanism manifests itself within a few strengths. If an earthquake is triggered in any place, it will break and create that earthquake. Currently, there is no triggering mechanism in Düzce and its surroundings. While it is said that there will be an earthquake of 7.0 and above in Malatya. Calm down, there is no such thing, people must not panic," he said.
