Over the past 25 years, the Mediterranean Basin, including Türkiye, has experienced a significant reduction in rainfall, with precipitation levels dropping by approximately 20%. This decline, coupled with rising temperatures and changing weather patterns, poses a serious threat to agricultural productivity across the region, according to professor Önder Çalmaşur, dean of the Faculty of Agriculture at Atatürk University.
Çalmaşur emphasized that shifts in the rainfall regime and increasing heat are leading to reductions in crop yields both globally and within Türkiye. Recent studies predict the most substantial decreases in wheat, corn and sunflower production. He explained that climate change has also resulted in a rise in the frequency of natural disasters such as floods, landslides, wildfires, droughts and extreme heat events.
Highlighting the underlying causes, Çalmaşur pointed to greenhouse gas emissions as the primary driver of global surface temperature increases. Citing projections from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), he noted that a 2-degree Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) rise, the upper limit defined to avoid catastrophic consequences, is expected by 2040, with temperatures potentially increasing by 4.3 degrees Celsius by 2100 if current trends continue.
The agricultural sector is among the most vulnerable to these changes. Çalmaşur stated, “Access to water and unfavorable climate conditions directly reduce productivity, causing significant losses. Globally, much of the decline in agricultural output is attributed to climate-related factors such as droughts, sudden flooding, untimely rainfall, hail, frost and storms.”
Projections suggest that by 2080, global agricultural production could decrease between 3% and 16%. While developing countries are expected to bear the brunt of these losses, some regions in Europe and North America may see gains due to increased rainfall and temperatures.
Focusing on Türkiye, Çalmaşur detailed the regional impacts. He referenced a study utilizing temperature and precipitation projections for the 2050s and 2080s from the Turkish General Directorate of Meteorology. This research analyzed major agricultural zones and the yield scenarios for wheat, corn and sunflower.
The findings indicate the highest yield reductions in the 2050s will be wheat by 7.4% in Central Anatolia, corn by 13.6% in Eastern Anatolia and sunflower by 7.7% in Central Anatolia. By the 2080s, the situation is expected to worsen, with wheat decreasing by 11.85% in Southeastern Anatolia, corn by 19% in Eastern Anatolia and sunflower by 13.5% in Central Anatolia.
Çalmaşur further stressed that Türkiye’s Mediterranean and Aegean coasts will face increasing drought conditions, while the Black Sea coast may experience higher humidity levels due to shifting precipitation patterns. Summarizing the expected climate trends, he said, “Türkiye will see temperature increases across all regions and seasons, with summer warming more pronounced than winter. Annual precipitation will decline in southern regions and rise in the northeast. The country will face more intense rainfall events, increased risk of river floods and landslides, longer and more severe droughts and heatwaves, rising sea levels and heightened flood risks in coastal and delta regions.”
