Türkiye is approaching a winter season shaped by warmer-than-normal temperatures, declining precipitation levels and escalating drought concerns, according to international climate models evaluated by professor Mikdat Kadıoğlu from Istanbul Technical University’s Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics.
The findings suggest that while intermittent cold spells may occur, prolonged mild periods will define the broader seasonal trend. This outlook comes on the heels of a notably warm and dry 2025, during which rainfall dropped sharply, vegetation bloomed prematurely due to “false spring” conditions and agricultural frost risks increased.
Kadıoğlu highlighted projections from the South East European Virtual Climate Change Center (SEEVCCC), where the Turkish State Meteorological Service is a member. Model outputs point to a winter with widespread positive temperature anomalies across Türkiye, signaling a season that will be milder and drier than historical averages. He noted that these trends do not rule out brief cold waves, but the overall narrative remains centered on sustained warmth.
Significant regional disparities are expected to shape the country’s climatic landscape. Western and southern coastal regions are forecast to experience heightened drought risks, while the eastern Black Sea is poised to record higher-than-normal precipitation. In the Marmara region, temperatures may exceed seasonal norms by 2-3 degrees Celsius (3-5 degrees Fahrenheit), resulting in a weakened winter sensation.
Critical winter precipitation supporting major dams in Istanbul and Kocaeli appears limited, while snow-cover duration in winter tourism hubs such as Uludağ may decline. The Aegean region shows clear indicators of agricultural drought, with Izmir, Aydın and surrounding provinces potentially receiving 50%-75% less rainfall than usual. The Mediterranean is expected to experience similarly elevated temperatures, particularly in its western basin, where drought concerns continue to intensify.
Central Anatolia is projected to see fewer snowy days, shortened snow-cover periods and diminished precipitation across cities such as Ankara, Konya and Eskişehir. The Black Sea region will display two distinct profiles: near-normal conditions in its western and central zones, and significantly wetter outcomes across the east.
Eastern Türkiye is projected to record the most pronounced temperature anomalies, with the Kars-Ardahan corridor experiencing deviations exceeding 4 degrees Celsius. In southeastern Türkiye, drought signals continue to strengthen, raising additional concerns for water and agricultural management.
Model-based winter scenarios for major cities further illustrate the variability of the season. Istanbul is expected to experience a mild winter with near-normal precipitation levels. While this does not equate to a snowless winter, sea-effect snow is possible if polar cold air meets the still-warm sea surface, creating conditions for short-term intense snowfall.
Ankara may see intermittent snow, frost and limited snow-cover duration, while drought conditions remain in play. Izmir is forecast to encounter frequent southerly winds and heavy showers, creating heightened flood risks, with only a minimal probability of snowfall.
In Antalya, storm systems and heavy downpours may be prominent, while the Taurus Mountains could receive substantial snowfall. Tornado risks along the Mediterranean coast are expected to remain consistent with previous years. Adana is likely to receive below-normal precipitation, presenting additional challenges for agricultural productivity. Bursa is expected to mirror Istanbul’s mild and relatively dry profile.
Eastern provinces exhibit a mixture of outcomes. Erzurum is anticipated to maintain its traditionally harsh winter climate, although snowfall totals may occasionally fall below average. Diyarbakır and Gaziantep are projected to encounter increasingly dry conditions, potentially affecting crop yields and broader agricultural activity.
Kadıoğlu underscored the relevance of these forecasts for long-term water management, particularly in the Aegean and Mediterranean regions, where precipitation deficits may weaken groundwater and reservoir replenishment. He also reiterated concerns around the “false spring” phenomenon, which can cause premature vegetation bloom that leaves crops vulnerable to unexpected cold snaps and associated agricultural losses.
While seasonal climate models offer directional guidance rather than precise predictions, the data affirms that winter 2025-2026 will be both variable and unpredictable. Mild, rainy stretches may be punctuated by abrupt polar outbreaks capable of disrupting agricultural cycles and urban life.
As climate variability accelerates, preparing for simultaneous drought risks, sudden snowfall, freezing events and weather-related disruptions will remain a strategic priority across Türkiye.
