The overconsumption of water in Türkiye following its hottest summers, blistering heat waves, widespread wildfires, dry winters and lowest precipitation, worries researchers in the fight against the climate crisis.
There are worries that the meteorological drought in the country might lead to hydrological drought and will continue to affect water resources in the coming years.
According to findings of climate change projection studies carried out for Türkiye, the annual average temperature increase is predicted to range between 1 and 2 degrees Celsius (1.8 and 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) for the 2016-2040 period, between 1.5 and 4 degrees Celsius for the 2041-2070 period and between 1.5 and 5 degrees Celsius for the 2071-2099 period. According to certain forecasts, the temperature rise over the final 30 years of this century (2071-2100) will be 3 degrees Celsius in the winter and 8 degrees Celsius in the summer. This change will probably also have a negative impact on Türkiye's water budget and increase the country’s water stress.
Additionally, the country's annual precipitation is expected to decrease by about 10% – especially in the west and along the Mediterranean coast – by 2050. This will result in increased water scarcity and periods of drought, problems that will be exacerbated by glacial retreat and decreased snowfall in the mountains, from which half of the country’s water is derived.
Türkiye's vanishing lakes are another alarming indicator of this phenomenon. The lakes supply fresh water to metropolitan areas such as Istanbul. According to the Istanbul Water and Sewage Authority (ISKI), more than 80% of the water reserves in the lakes are now gone, which also affects the neighboring cities.
Ahmet Kaya, who grows corn, wheat and other crops on the outskirts of Sakarya, has been hit hard by the lack of precipitation, which has hammered his crops. The lack of water is starting to feel like an existential crisis for farmers such as Kaya and he is worried about the future of his profession. "It’s becoming increasingly hard to make ends meet as crops shrivel through lack of water – or cannot be planted at all," he said.
In its 2021 report, the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that Türkiye will experience three accelerating trends: rising temperatures, dehydration and rising sea levels. Thus, the country is likely to experience more frequent and more severe weather conditions throughout the year.
According to IPCC, 60% of Türkiye's land is prone to desertification. Continuing climate and land-use changes could wipe away its soil and turn it into terrain.
Water scarcity will also lead to greater food insecurity. The reduction of water flows in the rivers that power Türkiye’s great hydroelectrical industry will also have a significant impact, and the energy sector will need to adjust its strategy as a result.
Hence, the country will have to reallocate water use away from the agriculture sector, which currently accounts for 74% of the country’s water consumption. Inevitably, strict regulations will be enacted for the farming and animal husbandry sectors.
