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5 things you need to know about 2026 US midterm elections

by Daily Sabah with Reuters

ISTANBUL Nov 03, 2026 - 3:47 pm GMT+3
A voter visits a polling station at a fire station, during the U.S. midterm elections, in Lexington, South Carolina, U.S., Nov. 3, 2026. (Reuters Photo)
A voter visits a polling station at a fire station, during the U.S. midterm elections, in Lexington, South Carolina, U.S., Nov. 3, 2026. (Reuters Photo)
by Daily Sabah with Reuters Nov 03, 2026 3:47 pm

Millions of Americans have already voted in early ballots while millions more headed for polling stations on Tuesday as the U.S. elects members of the House of Representatives, Senate and governors in states across the country.

Held in the middle of each four-year presidential term, the midterms by definition do not involve the president, however, for anyone who thinks they lack drama ⁠or importance this year, consider these two statistics:

  • More than 57 million people had already ⁠cast their ballots as of Monday, according to the University of Florida Election Lab, well above the 46 million who voted early in the 2022 midterm elections.
  • This election is on track to be the most expensive in U.S. history. The nonpartisan watchdog OpenSecrets estimates a total of $11.9 billion will be spent by candidates and outside political groups. Elon Musk alone ​had spent about $366 million to support Republicans as of three weeks ago, according to campaign finance records.

Still, midterms generally attract fewer voters ​than ⁠the higher-profile presidential races. More than 155 million votes were cast in the 2024 presidential election, for instance.

#1 Control of Congress at stake

Plenty is at stake in this midterm election as Democrats try to win majority control of the U.S. Congress.

Currently, Republicans hold a 218-214 majority in the House, where there are two vacancies and one independent who caucuses with Republicans. Democrats must win a net gain of four seats to win control.

Democrats also are fighting to win the Senate, where Republicans hold a 53-47 majority. They must net four additional seats to get control. Twelve races, including those in conservative-leaning states like Kansas and Texas, could decide the outcome.

Midterm elections generally are dangerous territory for the political party that holds the White House and/or Congress.

For 2026, that means that President Donald Trump and his Republicans controlling the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives are in perilous political positions.

#2 Verdict on presidency

The midterms can be an opportunity for voters to, in effect, grade the president's performance and possibly trigger White House course corrections if they receive low marks.

Midterm election results also can give aspiring presidential candidates hints on how to tailor their messages to voters in the next presidential campaign, which in this case will be in 2028.

Approval of Trump's performance is at a near record low of 32%, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling.

Voters walk next to a U.S. flag outside a polling station during the midterm elections on Election Day, in Columbus, Ohio, U.S., Nov. 3, 2026. (Reuters Photo)
Voters walk next to a U.S. flag outside a polling station during the midterm elections on Election Day, in Columbus, Ohio, U.S., Nov. 3, 2026. (Reuters Photo)

Domestic issues like rising ⁠consumer prices ⁠are likely to have an impact on the outcome of many races and could erode support for Republicans.

At the same time, there is evidence that Democrats are more enthusiastic about voting this year than Republicans and more of them have already cast their ballots, according to the University of Florida Election Lab.

There are also signs that Latino voters who veered to Trump in 2024 might be returning to Democrats because of frustration over the economy and some of Trump's immigration enforcement tactics.

However, a landslide for the Democrats is far from assured. Republicans could benefit from continued skepticism towards Democrats, a Republican spending advantage on campaigns, and fears from moderate voters over some primary wins by left-wingers.

#3 History of shockwaves

Recent history tells the story of the shockwaves a midterm election can produce.

In the 2010 midterms, during the Democratic presidency of Barack Obama, Republicans scored major victories, winning 63 additional House seats amid an underperforming U.S. economy and weak support for Obama's landmark health care reform legislation. Democrats lost their majority. In the Senate, they held onto control despite losing six seats.

The Republican wave was a "shellacking," Obama lamented at the time. He subsequently faced ⁠Republican demands for significant reductions to non-defense spending.

Democrats returned the favor in 2018, with Trump in the White House. They gained a net total of 40 House seats, but lost a net two Senate seats.

This year's elections also have races for governors in 36 of the 50 states and voting in nearly every state for seats in state-level legislative bodies.

Currently, Republicans control 55% of state legislative seats across the country, while Democrats hold 43.8%, according to Ballotpedia.

#4 Speaker's spot up for grabs

If Democrats manage to win the House, the next speaker – second in line for the presidency after the vice president – is likely to be Democratic Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York. He ​is currently the House Democratic leader.

Jeffries, who would become the first Black American to hold the powerful office, would be in a position to direct House committees to launch investigations into a range of controversial activities by Trump and his associates. Jeffries repeatedly has said Democrats would look into what he has called "unprecedented levels of corruption" during the ⁠Trump administration.

He also would steer Democrats' ‌legislative priorities through the ‌House. He has said Democrats would focus on making healthcare, groceries, housing, energy and other costs more affordable.

A Republican win, on the other ⁠hand, would ensure that the speaker's gavel remains in that party's hands, either with current speaker Mike Johnson or whichever ‌Republican prevails if he is challenged for the job.

A person walks past the Palm Beach County Supervisor of Elections office during the U.S. midterm elections, in West Palm Beach, Florida, U.S., Nov. 3, 2026. (Reuters Photo)
A person walks past the Palm Beach County Supervisor of Elections office during the U.S. midterm elections, in West Palm Beach, Florida, U.S., Nov. 3, 2026. (Reuters Photo)

Republican priorities are likely to be focused on additional tax cuts, huge increases in defense spending, and deeper social safety net reductions, building on Trump's 2025 "One Big Beautiful Bill."

#5 Marquee races

Among the most-watched House ​races are Republican Representative Mike Lawler's bid for reelection to a ⁠New York district that Democratic candidate Kamala Harris won in her 2024 presidential campaign and an open seat in a Nebraska swing district where ⁠farmers and truckers face sharply higher fuel prices as a result of the U.S. war against Iran.

Also high on Democrats' list of House seats they hope to take from Republicans are two ⁠in Pennsylvania and one in New Jersey.

Hovering over ​all of this are questions over whether Trump will try to meddle in the elections, which are administered by the 50 individual states.

Since 2020, he has repeatedly insisted, falsely, that there is widespread cheating in U.S. elections. State election officials and Democrats in Congress have been preparing for possible legal challenges to any moves by his administration to try to intervene.

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