A classified U.S. intelligence review reportedly finds that Iran would be capable of weathering a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz for several months before experiencing major economic deterioration, underscoring the limits of immediate pressure on Tehran.
The analysis prepared by the U.S. intelligence community and delivered to administration officials this week reportedly raises new questions about President Donald Trump’s optimistic public assessments regarding the effectiveness of U.S. military and economic pressure on Tehran.
The report said intelligence officials also determined that Iran retains substantial ballistic missile capabilities, despite weeks of U.S. and Israeli strikes targeting military infrastructure and weapons facilities.
Iran retains about 75% of its prewar inventories of mobile launchers and about 70% of its prewar stockpiles of missiles, said a U.S. official, according to The Washington Post.
The official said there is evidence that the regime has been able to recover and reopen almost all of its underground storage facilities, repair some damaged missiles and even assemble some new missiles that were nearly complete when the war began.
Trump, however, offered a more upbeat assessment Wednesday.
"Their missiles are mostly decimated,” he said. "They have probably 18, 19%, but not a lot by comparison to what they had.”
The Washington Post reported that three US officials and one former official confirmed key details of the intelligence findings on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.
In a statement to the newspaper, a senior US intelligence official emphasized the pressure the blockade is placing on Iran’s economy and military.
"The President’s blockade is inflicting real, compounding damage - severing trade, crushing revenue, and accelerating systemic economic collapse. Iran’s military has been badly degraded, its navy destroyed, and its leaders are in hiding,” said the official. "What’s left is the regime’s appetite for civilian suffering - starving its own people to prolong a war it has already lost.”
Another U.S. official quoted in the report suggested that Iran may be capable of enduring sanctions and military pressure longer than the CIA assessment predicts.
"The leadership has gotten more radical, determined and increasingly confident they can outlast U.S. political will and sustain domestic repression to check any resistance,” said the official. "Comparatively, you see similar regimes lasting years under sustained embargoes and airpower-only wars.”
Regional tensions have escalated since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran on Feb. 28, triggering retaliation from Tehran against Israel as well as U.S. allies in the Gulf, along with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
A cease-fire took effect April 8 through Pakistani mediation, but talks in Islamabad failed to produce a lasting agreement. The truce was later extended by Trump without a set deadline.
Since April 13, the U.S. has enforced a naval blockade targeting Iranian maritime traffic in the strait.
Trump announced Tuesday that the U.S. military will temporarily pause "Project Freedom" to restore freedom of navigation for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and said the American blockade will remain "in full force and effect."
