As Donald Trump's second term in the U.S. presidency looms, analysts are examining the factors behind his electoral success, particularly his ability to unite diverse communities and social groups across American society. One key question that continues to emerge is why a majority of Muslims supported him in his race against Kamala Harris, who is known for her close ties to minority communities.
Furkan Kaya, an academic from Yeditepe University, believes that the support Trump received from Muslim voters reflects the community’s diverse composition, which includes a wide range of ethnic, sectarian and ideological perspectives.
In an exclusive interview with Daily Sabah, Kaya said: “Muslims in the U.S. are far from a monolithic group. While some vehemently oppose Trump’s policies, viewing them as discriminatory, others appreciate his emphasis on traditional family values and selective immigration policies, which align with their priorities.”
There are 2.5 million Muslim voters in the U.S., most of whom live in the seven critical “swing states” where elections are neck and neck. This has led to Muslim voters playing a decisive role in the election results.
According to a nationwide survey of 1,449 Muslim voters conducted on Oct. 30-31, shortly before the elections, 42.3% of respondents had said they would vote for third-party candidate Jill Stein. Democratic Party candidate Kamala Harris was the second choice of Muslim voters, with 41%, while 9.8% said they would vote for Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Kaya criticized both Trump’s policies and the Democratic Party’s perceived disengagement, highlighting the continued use of Islamophobia as a political tool by both major parties.
Hatem Bazian, a scholar at the University of California, Berkeley, argued that Trump represents a continuation of U.S. political elites' longstanding support for Israel while marginalizing pro-Palestinian Muslim communities.
“This challenge has existed since at least 2021, during Biden’s presidency, and has intensified over the last 14 months,” Bazian said.
“However, the Democratic Party's refusal to include figures like Rashida Tlaib showed that it missed an opportunity to connect with an important voter base,” Bazian noted, emphasizing that this alienation contrasted sharply with Trump’s evolving tone in the 2024 campaign.
Rashida Tlaib made history in 2018 when she won Michigan's 13th District seat, becoming the first Muslim woman elected to the U.S. Congress. Joining Ilhan Omar as the third Muslim in Congress, Tlaib opposed Trump's policies and advocated for immigration reform and universal health care.
Kaya also highlighted the Abraham Accords, normalization agreements between Israel and several Arab countries, as a significant factor shaping Muslim voters' political behavior in the U.S.
“While these agreements were praised for fostering regional stability and economic cooperation, they sparked criticism for sidelining the Palestinian cause and polarizing Muslim voters,” he noted, citing Trump’s hardline stance on Iran as a divisive element.
In November 2024, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu expressed his desire to continue the peace process initiated by the Abraham Accords, aiming to normalize relations with more Arab countries.
Kaya also pointed to the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, which was widely supported by anti-war voters welcoming the end of "endless wars." However, Bazian criticized the Democrats for failing to connect with Muslim voters.
At the same time, it is seen that Trump did not continue some controversial discourses and adopted a more conciliatory attitude in the 2024 election campaign compared to 2016 and 2020; Kaya said, “Trump avoided Islamophobic rhetoric against Muslims” and added, “He did not create the panic atmosphere when he was first elected.”
In the 2020 elections, the Democrats' victory was consolidated through identity politics and some senators elected with headscarves, such as Ilhan Omar, were highlighted. This played an important role in Muslim voters mostly voting for Trump.
This time around though, the election results were shaped in favor of Trump, especially in states with large Muslim populations. For instance, in Michigan, Kamala Harris received 48.3% of the vote, while Donald Trump won the state with 49.7%, demonstrating the decisive influence of Muslim voters.
Recently, Muslim activism on the Palestinian issue has increased, with organizations such as the Council on American-Islamic Relations organizing protests, providing financial support and running pro-Palestinian advertisements nationally. Bazian described this activism as a “creative response to oppression,” emphasizing community resilience and political engagement.
In 2016, on the other hand, Trump drew attention with promises to address the economic problems of the lower classes. Republicans embraced reforms such as raising the minimum wage in Alabama, but Democrats often campaigned on issues of social identity.
On the other hand, Democrats were criticized for not offering effective solutions to economic and working-class issues.
“Economic stability, security and conservative values often outweighed cultural and ideological differences,” Kaya said, explaining the balance between pragmatism and ideological commitments among Muslim voters.
