Dutch centrist leader Rob Jetten declared victory Friday over far-right rival Geert Wilders in a tightly contested election, positioning himself to become the EU’s youngest and first openly gay prime minister – and signaling that populism can be challenged in Europe.
With far-right parties on the march in France, Germany, and Britain, the Dutch vote was seen as a bellwether for the strength of populists in Europe.
Jetten told AFP his positive message of optimism had convinced the Dutch electorate and delivered victory over the anti-Islam, anti-immigration Wilders.
"I think we've now shown to the rest of Europe and the world that it is possible to beat the populist movements if you campaign with a positive message for your country," he said.
Dutch news agency ANP, which collates and distributes the vote tally, called the cliffhanger election for Jetten, saying he could not be overhauled.
With the final constituency result arriving Friday evening, only the overseas postal votes are still to be counted.
Expats have historically voted for more centrist and left-wing parties. At the last election in 2023, D66 outscored the PVV by nearly 3,000 postal votes.
As things stand, Jetten holds a razor-thin lead of 14,081 votes over Wilders and his PVV Freedom Party. The D66 and PVV are each expected to get about 26 seats in the 150-member parliament.
Postal votes are already being counted in The Hague, but that result will not be announced before Monday evening at the earliest.
The results will only become official when the Electoral Council declares them next Friday, but Jetten said there was no time to waste.
"We do not want to waste time unnecessarily because the Dutch people are asking us to get to work," said Jetten, a keen athlete who once ran as a pacemaker to Olympic champion Sifan Hassan.
Wilders retorted that Jetten had jumped the gun.
"The Electoral Council decides, not ANP. How arrogant not to wait," wrote Wilders on X, formerly Twitter.
"But even if D66 becomes the largest, the PVV will not let the Netherlands be dismantled by Jetten and his like and will oppose his left-liberal mismanagement with full force from day one," added Wilders.
Now begins the complex and lengthy process of forming a coalition of like-minded parties with a majority of at least 76 seats in the 150-member parliament.
Jetten's main path to that appears to be a form of "grand coalition" with the center-right CDA (18 seats), the liberal VVD (22) and the left-wing Green/Labour group (20).
The D66 party currently has 26 seats, but this could be bumped up to 27 when every vote is counted, potentially opening up further coalition possibilities.
"I think the voters have made clear with this election result that they want co-operation on the centre ground" of Dutch politics, said Jetten.
But there are questions about whether the VVD and Green/Labour will work together.
VVD leader Dilan Yeşilgöz said before the election that an alliance with Green/Labour "would not work." She wanted a center-right coalition.
On Monday, the Green/Labour group will elect a new leader after former EU vice-president Frans Timmermans stepped down.
Yeşilgöz and Timmermans are known to have a difficult relationship, so a new Green/Labour leader could ease the path to a partnership.
Although Wilders saw support collapse, other far-right parties performed well.
The Forum for Democracy (FvD), a nationalist party that wants to withdraw from the EU's Schengen system of open borders, more than doubled its vote.
It will have seven MPs in the new parliament, from three before. Wilders has ruled out working with them, finding them too extreme.
The hard-right JA21 party, which describes itself as a "conservative liberal party with a positive view of the Netherlands," jumped from one seat to nine.
Jetten said he had not yet heard from Wilders, although the news of ANP's projection was "hot off the press."
"We both agreed yesterday it was important to take a break and wait until more clarity about this election result was available," said Jetten.
"But now it's clear that D66 will be the largest party."
