Portugal’s center-right Democratic Alliance (AD) emerged as the frontrunner in the country’s third general election in as many years, winning the most seats but once again falling short of a parliamentary majority, according to exit polls.
The result signals continued political gridlock in the NATO and European Union member state, at a time when the bloc is grappling with global trade tensions and efforts to boost collective defense.
An RTP-commissioned exit poll projects Prime Minister Luís Montenegro’s AD to capture between 29% and 34% of the vote, ahead of the Socialist Party (PS), which is expected to secure 21% to 26%.
This would translate to roughly 85 to 96 seats for AD in the 230-seat legislature – well below the 116 needed to govern alone – while far-right Chega continues its steady rise, further complicating coalition prospects.
The anti-establishment Chega (“Enough”) party was projected to win 20% to 24% of the vote, up from 18% in the last election in 2024, which could make it a kingmaker.
But Montenegro, 52, a lawyer by profession, has refused any alliance with Chega, saying it is “unreliable” and “not suited to governing.”
Sunday’s election was triggered after Montenegro lost a parliamentary vote of confidence in March following less than a year in power.
He called for the vote amid allegations of conflicts of interest related to his family’s consultancy business, which has several clients holding government contracts.
Montenegro denied any wrongdoing, saying he was not involved in the day-to-day operations of the firm.
The AD formed a minority government after the last election. It passed a budget that raised pensions and public sector wages and cut income taxes for young people, as the PS abstained in key parliamentary votes.
But relations between the two main parties soured after the confidence vote, and it is unclear if a weakened PS will be willing to allow the center-right to govern this time around.
Socialist leader Pedro Nuno Santos, a 48-year-old economist, accused Montenegro of engineering the election “to avoid explaining himself” about the firm’s activities to a parliamentary inquiry.
He vowed to continue pushing for an inquiry following the vote.
Meanwhile, Montenegro has criticized the immigration policies of the previous Socialist government, accusing it of leaving Portugal in “bedlam.”
Under the Socialist Party, Portugal became one of Europe’s most open countries for immigrants.
Between 2017 and 2024, the number of foreigners living in Portugal quadrupled, reaching about 15% of the total population.
Montenegro has since toughened immigration policy. During the campaign, his government announced the expulsion of some 18,000 irregular migrants, leading critics to accuse it of pandering to far-right voters.
Tiago Manso, a 33-year-old economist, welcomed the government’s moves to cut taxes and restrict immigration, saying the country’s struggling public services were unable to cope with the influx.
“If the country doesn’t create new schools, new hospitals, it can’t keep its doors open to everyone,” he told Agence France-Presse (AFP) after voting for AD in Lisbon.
Like other far-right parties that have gained ground across Europe, Chega has tapped into hostility toward immigration and concerns over crime.
The party has grown rapidly under the leadership of André Ventura, a 42-year-old former TV football commentator.
It won 1.3% of the vote in 2019, the year it was founded, giving it a seat in parliament – the first time a far-right party had won representation in Portugal’s parliament since the 1974 coup that toppled a decades-old right-wing dictatorship.
Chega became the third-largest force in parliament in the 2022 general election and quadrupled its parliamentary seats last year to 50.
