Italy’s conservative premier, Giorgia Meloni, faces a critical test as voters head to the polls in a two-day referendum on judicial reform that began Sunday, a contest that has evolved into a wider judgment on her leadership both domestically and internationally.
What was pitched as a technical update to the justice system has deepened political divisions and rallied the center-left opposition, turning the vote into a symbolic measure of Meloni’s strength just a year ahead of national elections.
Recent polls show the outcome remains uncertain, with the "No" camp gaining late momentum in a polarized environment where turnout could be decisive. After five hours of voting Sunday, Italy’s Interior Ministry reported turnout at nearly 15% of eligible voters, the highest for any two-day referendum in 23 years.
Political analyst Lorenzo Pregliasco of YouTrend said a rejection of the reform would carry substantial political consequences for Meloni.
"A possible 'No' victory would send a political signal, weakening Meloni’s aura of invincibility, while pushing the center-left opposition to say that there is already an alternative in the country," he told The Associated Press (AP).
Meloni initially avoided tying her image too closely to the referendum, wary that a defeat could weaken her both domestically and abroad.
She currently presides over Italy’s most stable government in years, after gaining credibility among European allies as a charismatic leader. A referendum win would further strengthen her tenure at home and her international standing.
As the vote neared and polls tightened, Meloni shifted strategy and fully embraced the "Yes" campaign.
She has sharpened her rhetoric, accusing parts of the judiciary of hindering government work on migration and security, and warning that failure to pass the reform would strengthen unaccountable judicial "factions" and endanger citizens’ safety.
"If the reform doesn’t pass this time, we will probably not have another chance," she said at a campaign event last week. "We will find ourselves with even more powerful factions, even more negligent judges, even more surreal sentences, immigrants, rapists, pedophiles, drug dealers being freed and putting your security at risk."
Her stark warnings have drawn fierce criticism from magistrates and the center-left, who argue the reforms would erode judicial independence and undermine constitutional guarantees.
"Obviously I’m voting no, because I think this government has organized a referendum that serves no purpose other than its own, if it were to go ahead," said Giovanna Antongini, 89, as she headed to a polling station in central Rome.
Analysts say the referendum carries international implications as well.
Meloni's long-standing alignment with U.S. President Donald Trump, once politically advantageous, has become increasingly problematic as his foreign policy, particularly the U.S. and Israeli war with Iran, faces growing disapproval among Italians.
"Meloni is facing what I would call the 'Trump risk,' which is appearing too subservient to the U.S. president, who is an extremely unpopular political leader in Italy and the rest of Europe and generates a lot of distrust, even among center-right voters," Pregliasco said.
A defeat in the referendum would not force Meloni to resign, as her mandate runs through 2027 and she has repeatedly pledged to complete it, but it could diminish her credibility within the European Union, where she is viewed as a stabilizing actor in an often politically volatile environment.
The referendum centers on long-debated reforms aimed at reshaping the structure of Italy’s judiciary.
"This vote is very important," said Francesca Serlupi Ferretti Crescenzi, 67, casting her ballot in Rome. "It is intended to improve the judicial system, which is long overdue for reform. I am convinced that it must and can be improved."
A key measure includes separating the career paths of judges and prosecutors, preventing them from switching roles, something that is currently allowed but rarely practiced.
Another major change concerns the High Judicial Council, which oversees magistrates’ appointments and disciplinary matters. The reform proposes splitting it into three separate chambers and altering how members are chosen, replacing internal elections with selections by lottery from eligible judges and prosecutors.
The clash between Italy’s right-wing leaders and magistrates has punctuated Italian politics, erupting during the governments of late conservative leader Silvio Berlusconi, who was one of the staunchest supporters of judicial reform.
Supporters argue the changes will modernize an infamously slow court system and enhance accountability, but critics, including prominent magistrates, say the reform misses real priorities while threatening the judiciary’s independence.
Nicola Gratteri, Naples’ chief prosecutor and a longtime anti-Mafia magistrate, offered one of the most pointed rebukes.
"I don’t think this government has implemented the reforms needed to make trials work more effectively," he told the AP. "Instead, it has made it virtually impossible to combat crimes against the public administration and to tackle white-collar abuse and corruption."
As Italians head to the polls, the referendum stands as one of the defining moments of Meloni’s premiership, a choice that could reshape not only the justice system but also the trajectory of her government, regardless of the outcome.
