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Russia made steady advances in east Ukraine in October: Analysis

by Agence France-Presse - AFP

Kyiv Nov 03, 2025 - 9:38 pm GMT+3
A resident rides a bicycle near apartment buildings damaged by a Russian military strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in the frontline town of Kostiantynivka in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, Nov. 1, 2025. (Reuters Photo)
A resident rides a bicycle near apartment buildings damaged by a Russian military strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in the frontline town of Kostiantynivka in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, Nov. 1, 2025. (Reuters Photo)
by Agence France-Presse - AFP Nov 03, 2025 9:38 pm

Russian forces made steady territorial gains in Ukraine during October, concentrating their assaults on the eastern Donetsk region, according to an Agence France-Presse (AFP) analysis of data from the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The region has suffered the most intense fighting of the almost four-year war and Ukraine is now scrambling to keep hold of the important city of Pokrovsk.

According to the analysis of data from ISW, which works with the Critical Threats Project, Russia took 461 square kilometers (286 square miles) from Ukraine in the month.

That pace was in line with the average monthly gain this year, down from a surge in July when Russia seized 634 square kilometers.

Russia now controls 81% of the Donetsk region, which it claims to have annexed and is fighting to secure full control over.

Moscow has demanded that Ukraine withdraw its troops from there, as well as from the Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, as a precondition to peace talks, Kyiv has dismissed that as unacceptable.

Several rounds of negotiations have failed to break the deadlock over how to end the conflict.

In total, Russia controls, or claims to control, 19.2 percent of Ukraine, including the Crimean peninsula which it annexed in 2014 and parts of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions that were seized by Moscow-backed separatists before Russia launched its full-scale invasion in 2022.

The important logistics hub of Pokrovsk, which Moscow has been trying to capture for more than a year, has come under renewed pressure in recent weeks.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the situation in Pokrovsk was "challenging" and that "from 260 to 300 Russians" were fighting in the city.

"About 30 percent of all combat actions on the front take place in Pokrovsk," he told journalists, including from AFP, during a briefing on Monday.

The ISW data also showed Russia took 150 square kilometers of the Dnipropetrovsk region, west of Donetsk, over the month.

It is not one of the five Ukrainian regions, including Crimea, that Moscow claims as its own.

At the height of its invasion, in March 2022, Russia controlled 27.7 percent of Ukraine. Kyiv then ousted Russian troops from large swathes of eastern and southern areas.

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