As Russian President Vladimir Putin weighs a possible peace deal to end the war in Ukraine, hard-line nationalist voices at home are pushing back, demanding the fight continue.
“If we lay down our arms, we give up our country!” wrote Pavel Gubarev, a pro-Kremlin activist in Moscow-controlled eastern Donetsk, in a fiery social media post Sunday. He denounced any effort to "freeze" the conflict along current front lines.
To a Western observer, it might seem like Putin is facing mounting internal pressure.
But according to three people close to the Kremlin, the so-called “Z-patriots” – named after the "Z" symbol Russian troops use on their vehicles – operate within strict limits and don’t pose a real threat to Putin’s authority. When the time comes to broker peace, they’re expected to fall in line.
At the same time, Putin and his intelligence agencies must manage Russia's hard-core nationalists to ensure they don’t disrupt his goals, the sources said.
Analysts say that by arguing for the war to continue – just as U.S. President Donald Trump and some Western European leaders push for a deal – the Z-patriots can sometimes go too far for the Kremlin’s liking by riling up the public and creating expectations of a more ambitious battlefield campaign.
“They are not all under full control,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center who has studied the Kremlin for years.
Stanovaya, who was designated a "foreign agent" by Russian authorities last year, noted that some Z-patriots have called on the Russian army to take the Ukrainian cities of Kyiv and Odesa and even attack Poland. Such targets go well beyond what Putin – who has claimed four Ukrainian regions as part of Russia, in addition to Crimea – has stated as Russia's war aims.
“Their whipping up of people and pushing society to support a bigger military campaign is a hindrance, and work goes on to get them to tone down what they are saying or put a sock in it, because they stir up society when Putin needs to hold talks,” Stanovaya said.
The Kremlin did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Some Z-patriots – war bloggers or correspondents – have half a million followers or more on the Telegram social media platform and are widely read inside Russia, as well as among the elite, abroad and in Ukraine.
But they must tread carefully.
Nationalists who have crossed the Kremlin in the past ran into trouble – notably rebellious Wagner mercenary group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin and outspoken ultranationalist Igor Girkin. Prigozhin died in a plane crash, and Girkin was jailed.
The Kremlin has rejected as an "absolute lie" the suggestion that Putin had Prigozhin killed in revenge for his mutiny. It says it does not interfere in court cases, a claim critics contest.
Analysts say the Z-patriots have been useful to the Kremlin, helping it build and maintain broad public support for the war over the last three years.
But Z-patriots who make too much of a fuss about any eventual peace deal risk being purged, said the three sources, who, like others in this story, spoke on condition of anonymity given the matter’s sensitivity.
One source said the ultranationalists would quickly change their rhetoric once the Kremlin settles on a peace plan.
“It will be like a light switch being flicked,” the source said.
After Putin called for direct peace talks in Istanbul with Ukraine at a Kremlin news conference Sunday, some ultranationalists were quick to voice concerns.
A Russian negotiating team was in Türkiye on Thursday for the talks, though it was unclear if they would happen, with Putin himself apparently not attending.
“Our war will continue until the complete liberation of Novorossiya and Malorossiya,” Konstantin Malofeyev, a nationalist tycoon who is married to a senior government official reporting directly to Putin, wrote in his blog Monday, using terms that hark back to the Russian Empire and describe parts of modern-day Ukraine once ruled by the tsars.
Malofeyev did not respond to a request for an interview.
Meanwhile, Dmitry Medvedev, a former Russian president who is currently deputy chair of the Security Council and who once styled himself as a liberal, pro-Western modernizer, posted on X on Saturday that a truce would offer the Ukrainian army "respite."
Medvedev has gained a reputation for making extreme and undiplomatic remarks, but his statements reflect a strand of thinking among senior Kremlin figures, five diplomats told Reuters. As a former Kremlin chief, analysts and one source said, Medvedev – who remains close to Putin – has particular license to speak out.
One source said bellicose pronouncements by nationalists like Malofeyev – though sincere and not scripted – are one way of tracking whether the Kremlin is seriously considering peace in Ukraine.
If and when the war ends or nears its end, such figures will sense the shift, the source said. Those who fail to adjust their behavior could end up in jail, another source added.
Authorities have made two rules very clear: don’t criticize Putin personally or the army’s top brass.
Under a law passed shortly after tens of thousands of Russian troops entered Ukraine in 2022, "discrediting" the military is punishable by up to 15 years in prison.
After accusing Putin and top military leaders of failure in Ukraine, Girkin – a former FSB officer and battlefield commander wanted for war crimes in the West – was convicted of inciting extremism in 2024 and sentenced to four years in prison.
Nonetheless, he wrote on social media from prison Monday that “only a fool or a saboteur who secretly assists the enemy in the information sphere could talk about the imminent end of the war and any compromise.”
Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner Group, led his men on an abortive march toward Moscow in June 2023 in a failed attempt to oust the defense minister, straying into personal criticism of Putin.
He was killed in a plane crash with his top aides two months to the day after the mutiny. Putin later suggested the plane had been blown up with hand grenades while those on board were under the influence of cocaine and alcohol.
‘The Party of War’
Many Russians associate the Z-patriots label with war bloggers and correspondents, a group that rose to prominence after the conflict began.
Outspoken in the war’s early stages, many were later invited to briefings by the Kremlin and the Defense Ministry in an effort to co-opt them. Some now republish official statements alongside their own analysis; others remain more critical.
But the so-called "party of war" includes a broader set of voices, including State Duma deputies and “political technologists” – experts who shape public opinion on state TV talk shows. They repeat and amplify the Kremlin’s messaging on the war, offering a useful service.
War hawks include figures tied to the Defense Ministry, intelligence services and law enforcement agencies, as well as individuals with close personal ties to Putin.
Those appearing on state television often issue extreme threats against the West, such as calls to use nuclear weapons on Britain or to invade the Baltic states.
A fourth source inside Russia said the drive to prolong the war stems from pressure within the system on Putin to settle what many see as Russia's "Ukraine problem" once and for all.
Carnegie’s Stanovaya, citing polling, estimates that 10% to 15% of Russians share the Z-patriots' views. But she said Putin’s deeply held beliefs, not nationalist pressure, shape his decisions.
“Without radical external changes, Putin is committed to ending the war on his own terms,” she said, referring to his territorial and security demands in Ukraine. “He’s ready to wage war for years – or achieve his aims another way.”
