The U.S. government has long pressed China to abandon military threats and exercise restraint in its efforts to assert control over the democratically governed island of Taiwan.
Now, some Chinese commentators say that message has been undermined by President-elect Donald Trump’s threats to take control of Greenland and the Panama Canal, by force if necessary. Trump is set to take office on Jan. 20.
The implications of Trump’s comments on U.S. policy toward Taiwan have been widely discussed on Chinese social media platforms and by foreign policy analysts in recent days.
While the military standoff over Taiwan is unlikely to change in the near term, some analysts suggest Trump’s approach could create an opening for China.
Zhao Minghao, a professor at the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, said Trump’s threats regarding Greenland, the Panama Canal and even Canada needed to be taken seriously.
"Besides that, we need to think about Trump’s transactionalism, which he is serious about as well. Many in China still perceive Trump as a deal-maker, even on very tough issues like the Taiwan question," Zhao said.
China’s Foreign Ministry dismissed attempts to link Greenland’s status to Taiwan, calling them "absurd."
"The Taiwan issue is an internal Chinese matter, and how to resolve it is something for the Chinese people," the ministry said in a statement to Reuters.
Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry reiterated that the Republic of China, the island’s official name, is a "sovereign and independent country."
"Any distortion of Taiwan’s sovereign status will not change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait," the ministry said.
The Trump transition team did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
China has consistently claimed Taiwan as part of its territory and has not ruled out the use of force to bring the island under its control.
A limiting factor for Beijing is that U.S. law requires the country to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself. However, under the policy of "strategic ambiguity," it remains unclear if U.S. forces would directly intervene in a conflict.
During his first term, Trump expressed strong support for Taiwan, including regularizing arms sales. However, during his campaign, he suggested Taiwan should pay the U.S. for its defense. Taiwan has said it is committed to increasing defense spending.
The Taiwan question is vastly different from Greenland, Canada, or the Panama Canal: China views Taiwan as an intrinsic part of its territory, while Trump’s Greenland comments pertain to sovereignty issues involving other nations.
Nevertheless, Trump’s comments have stirred debate on Chinese social media, despite censorship.
"If Greenland is annexed by the United States, China must take Taiwan," wrote Wang Jiangyu, a professor at the City University of Hong Kong, on Weibo.
One Baidu blogger argued that if Trump moved to Greenland, China should seize the opportunity to "take back Taiwan."
"Trump seems to be serious, so we too should see what we could get from this," the blogger wrote.
Chen Fei, an associate professor at Central China Normal University, said on the NetEase news portal that Taiwan was a core security interest for China, akin to Greenland for Trump. However, he emphasized the differences between the two cases.
"Taiwan is China’s intrinsic territory and a pure internal Chinese matter. It has nothing to do with another country’s sovereignty," Chen said.
Bonnie Glaser, a Taiwan expert at the German Marshall Fund, said other factors weigh more heavily for Chinese President Xi Jinping, including military capabilities and potential costs of using force against Taiwan.
"I doubt that Beijing will draw parallels between Greenland and Taiwan," Glaser said. "The Chinese believe that Taiwan is already and always has been part of China – they won’t pay money for it, and no government in Taiwan will agree to be bought."
Drew Thompson, a senior fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, dismissed the idea that Trump’s Greenland remarks could embolden China’s claims on Taiwan.
"It’s quite preposterous," Thompson said. "But it does strike me that if President Trump refuses to rule out the use of military force to achieve and protect U.S. interests, that type of statement would serve to further deter Beijing from taking any action that would prompt U.S. military intervention to protect Taiwan."
"That’s a pretty mighty deterrent for China," he added.
