Russia is preparing to completely withdraw its forces from military bases in Syria, a memo by Germany's Defense Ministry claimed Friday.
Russia's Mediterranean Sea unit had already left its base at Tartus on the Syrian coast, it notes. Security guarantees from the country's new rulers probably extend only to the withdrawal of Russian forces and "not to their long-term stay," the memo says.
Russia's military airbase at Hemeimeem, to the south of the city of Latakia, and the base at the port at Tartus have in the past been used to service a logistics hub in Libya for Russian forces in Africa.
The loss of Hemeimeem would probably hit air transports from Russia to Libya, as the aircraft will be able to transport less on the longer route, the analysis by the German Defense Ministry predicts.
Transports of heavy goods without a staging base would only be possible with continued Turkish overflight rights. "These are seen critically by NATO," the memo notes.
While the loss of the Syrian bases would affect Russian logistics to and from Africa in the short to medium term, Russia's current military engagements in Africa will not be "significantly impacted in principle," it says.
Tartus has to date been the sole Russian base in the eastern Mediterranean, and its loss will probably have a negative effect on a reliable Russian military presence in the region, the memo says.
It adds that without an agreement with the new rulers in Syria, Russia will have only "restricted maintenance of a maritime presence in the Mediterranean Sea."
