Facing export curbs in the U.S. and Europe, Chinese carmakers are turning to Africa's untapped potential, particularly focusing on electric and hybrid vehicles in their quest for new markets.
Though home to over a billion people, low incomes and high import duties have long hampered manufacturers' efforts to sell more cars in Africa. Unreliable power availability and a lack of charging infrastructure have meanwhile held back EV uptake.
But companies including BYD, Chery Auto and Great Wall Motor (GWM) are aiming to leverage low prices to advance where others have struggled and use an expansion in South Africa as a stepping stone in a continent-wide strategy.
"We treat South Africa as a very important market for our global expansion," said Tony Liu, the CEO of Chery South Africa, calling Africa's most developed auto market a "gateway to the African continent."
Nearly half of the 14 Chinese automotive brands currently active in South Africa launched only last year. More, including DongFeng, Leapmotor, Dayun and Changan, are set to enter the market soon.
And as new players move in, more established companies are looking into producing cars locally, allowing them to benefit from a government incentive program offering rebates for domestically made vehicles.
Liu said Chery – the No. 2 Chinese auto company in South Africa – was considering partnerships or building its own factory to produce cars for the South African market and export to the rest of the continent and potentially Europe.
Omoda & Jaecoo – Chery's premium independent brand – is also conducting feasibility studies for local assembly, its South Africa general manager, Hans Greyling, told Reuters.
Until now, it had not made sense for GWM, the largest Chinese automaker in South Africa by sales, to localize component production, its chief operating officer Conrad Groenewald told Reuters, as Chinese imports had been cheaper.
That is changing, however, and outsourcing to a local manufacturer or setting up a semi-knockdown plant, which would turn partially pre-assembled kits into finished vehicles, were options.
"I think now that we've got economies of scale ... We need to revisit those feasibility studies in the next 12 months," he said.
Chinese carmakers, which are in the midst of a rapid switch to EVs and hybrid production, are facing growing obstacles in the U.S. and Europe.
Growth of new EV sales has been slower than expected in many wealthy markets. And the EU's hefty duties on imports of Chinese-made EVs and 100% tariffs in the United States have erased their primary competitive advantage: price. Efforts to push into large emerging markets like India and Brazil have also proven to be complicated.
While the African market is still comparatively tiny, industry sources point to massive potential for growth.
South Africa, a market long dominated by the likes of Volkswagen and Toyota, manufactured just under 600,000 cars last year. But the government estimates production could grow to up to 1.5 million by 2035, given the right incentives.
The former head of the Association of African Automotive Manufacturers once estimated Sub-Saharan Africa's potential market at between 3 and 4 million new car sales annually.
Chinese companies stand poised to test that potential.
Chery is launching sales of eight hybrid cars, including five extended-range plug-in hybrids and three hybrid models, in South Africa. It will also introduce two small crossovers, while a pickup truck is scheduled to go on sale next year.
It also plans to bring its EV line, iCar and another brand, Lepas, to South Africa in the near future, Liu said.
BYD, China's top producer of electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, entered the South African market in 2023.
It recently doubled its South Africa line-up, adding the plug-in hybrid Shark pickup truck, plug-in hybrid SEALION 6 crossover and fully electric SEALION 7 SUV models to a range that had previously only included battery-powered models.
Auto executives interviewed by Reuters view plug-in hybrids as critical to their Africa strategy.
"Battery electric vehicles have not really taken off in South Africa," Omoda & Jaecoo's Greyling said. "We've gone the route of looking more towards traditional hybrids or plug-in hybrids."
South African sales of so-called new energy vehicles – a class including traditional and plug-in hybrids along with EVs – more than doubled from 2023 to last year, accounting for 3% share of total new vehicle sales.
While the numbers may still be small – 15,611 vehicles, mainly traditional hybrids – Chinese companies are encouraged by the trend.
"Based on our experience in China, once the market share of new energy vehicles reaches almost 10%, then the demand will start to explode," Chery's Liu said.
Chinese automakers face consumer skepticism over quality, spare parts availability and the untested resale value of their vehicles.
But they are counting on price and advanced technology setting them apart from Africa's traditional market leaders and are focusing on offering plug-in hybrids and EVs with a starting price of under 400,000 rand ($22,500).
"As long as they remain affordable from an up-front cost perspective, they will be differentiated against legacy brands offering similar specifications," said Greg Cress of advisory firm Accenture.
Omoda & Jaecoo, which launched in Africa in 2023 and operates 52 dealerships in South Africa, Namibia, Eswatini and Botswana, hopes to triple sales in the next 18 months and enter new markets, Zambia and Tanzania.
BYD plans to expand its dealership network in East, Southern and West Africa, including a first-time entry into Tanzania.
Steve Chang, BYD Auto South Africa's general manager, said he is not daunted by the slow adoption of EVs and Africa's internal combustion engine-dominated vehicles market.
"I think South Africa and the rest of Africa have a very big opportunity to what I call leapfrog from ICE into renewable energy (cars)," he said. "Africa is a very big market."
