The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday raised its 2026 growth forecasts for both Türkiye and the global economy, citing companies’ and governments’ adaptation to U.S. tariff policies and an increase in artificial intelligence-related investment.
In its World Economic Outlook report, the 191-nation lending organization revised its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.3%, up from 3.1% projected in October. The fund kept its 2027 estimate unchanged at 3.2%.
For Türkiye, the IMF raised its 2026 growth projection to 4.2% from 3.7%. The fund also upgraded Türkiye's 2027 growth estimate to 4.1% from the 3.7% projection in October.
The IMF said global inflation is expected to continue moderating, falling from 4.1% in 2025 to 3.8% in 2026 and further to 3.4% in 2027. Fund officials said this leaves room for a more accommodative monetary policy that will help underpin growth.
The IMF's upgrade comes nearly a week after the World Bank revised its projections for Türkiye for this year and 2027.
In 2026, growth in Türkiye is forecast to pick up to 3.7%, according to the World Bank, up from its June forecast of 3.6%. The lender expects private consumption growth to strengthen, supported by rising real wages amid continued gradual disinflation. For 2027, the bank upgraded its projection to 4.4% from 4.2%.
Globally, the IMF cautioned that "the resilience exhibited so far is driven largely by a few sectors," signaling vulnerability.
While the global economy appears to be "shaking off the trade and tariff disruptions of 2025," this does not mean they had no impact, said Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF chief economist. Instead, the challenges were offset by "tailwinds from the AI and tech investment boom," he told reporters. This was especially true in North America and Asia, the IMF said.
The private sector also showed adaptability in dealing with trade shocks, while fiscal and monetary support provided boosts.
Since returning to the White House last January, President Donald Trump unleashed sweeping tariffs that hit allies and competitors alike, roiling financial markets and supply chains while causing trade tensions to rocket. But temperatures have cooled over the year as the Trump administration struck tariff deals with several partners and crucially reached a temporary truce with China, the world's second-biggest economy.
Nonetheless, the IMF said trade policy uncertainty remains much higher than in January 2025 and there could still be occasional flare-ups.
The U.S. Supreme Court is also due to rule on the legality of Trump's use of emergency economic powers to impose tariffs on goods from virtually all trading partners. The high court is widely expected to deliver a decision in early 2026, the fund said.
The strikedown of some duties would "inject another dose of trade policy uncertainty into the global economy," Gourinchas added. One concern is how Trump could tap other legal authorities to reimpose tariffs. Another issue is how the court ruling would impact government revenues and, therefore, fiscal policies, he added.
Besides trade, the AI boom pushing the global economy forward comes with its own risks, Gourinchas said. He flagged the risk of a "market correction" if expectations about AI gains, productivity and profitability are not realized.
A major catalyst of recent Wall Street stock records has been bullish sentiment about artificial intelligence. However, if growth due to AI turns out to be unrealistic, a big drop in the stock market – a correction – could damage the economy if consumers pull back.
The pickup in tech investment and expenditure was estimated to add around 0.3 percentage points to average annualized U.S. GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2025. This offset a drag from the lengthy government shutdown late in the year.
Gourinchas noted the divergence between the United States, which is seeing a jump in AI tech investment, and other advanced economies. The IMF estimates U.S. growth at 2.4% this year, 0.3 percentage points higher than predicted in October. In contrast, it expects eurozone growth of 1.3%, and a slower pace in Japan.
Growth in China and India is also "relatively strong" compared with other emerging markets, Gourinchas said. Most of the upward revision in global growth this time was accounted for by the United States and China, the IMF said.
Looking ahead, Gourinchas stressed the need for central bank independence so that they can pursue their mandate of price stability and financial stability. He did not comment on an ongoing U.S. Justice Department probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
But he noted that the importance of the U.S. dollar for the international monetary system means it is "even more important" that the Fed is able to do its job and do it well.
