The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) lifted its 2026 and 2027 inflation forecasts for Türkiye on Wednesday, while also downgrading its economic growth projections for both years.
In its latest economic outlook, the OECD raised its headline inflation forecast for Türkiye to 31.5% for 2026 from 28.4% in June, placing it above Turkish authorities' latest projections. Its inflation projection for 2027 was also raised to 24.7% from 18.3%.
It also cut the economic growth forecast to 2.7% from 3.1% for 2026, and to 3.6% from 3.8% for 2027.
As an energy importer, Türkiye has seen high inflation in recent years, although authorities have managed to lower it significantly compared to 85.5% in late 2022 and around 70% in May 2024. Since then, helped by central bank tightening, inflation dropped to 31.5% in August.
However, amid higher global energy prices, the progress on disinflation has been somewhat limited throughout the year, which has also prompted the government to change its main forecasts.
Under the new Medium-Term Program (MTP), Turkish authorities expect inflation at 28.4% by the end of the year. It is projected to fall to 21% in 2027, 13.5% in 2028 and 9% in 2029.
While energy and fertilizer costs remain a headwind, the OECD said it expects inflation in Türkiye to keep moderating, with disinflation set to continue into 2027.
In June, the OECD had cut its 2026 growth forecast for Türkiye, citing weaker domestic demand amid high energy and commodity prices and tighter financial conditions, leaving its 2027 growth outlook unchanged.
The revisions come as the OECD slightly raised its global growth forecasts for this year, saying AI-driven investment is helping the world economy hold up better than expected, even as a more entrenched energy shock weighs on the outlook for 2027.
