Turkish markets will witness a slate of data releases following the Eid al-Fitr holiday, with the spotlight on inflation data and the interest rate-setting meeting, as well as foreign trade balance and unemployment statistics.
The announcements will come at a critical time as markets try to settle following turbulent volatility after Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu was detained and later jailed pending a trial on corruption charges.
The arrest sparked a major market sell-off and sent the Turkish lira and bonds sharply lower before authorities acted, which helped assets recoup some of the losses before the Muslim holiday marking the end of Ramadan.
The markets have been seeing an economic picture in which both inflation and interest rates have been heading lower as part of an economic program that promised households future relief after years of soaring prices.
The consumer price index (CPI) data for March is due on Thursday and is likely to show the annual inflation maintained a downward trend, although eyes will be more focused on monthly reading.
Surveys suggest the annual CPI eased to about 38.9% in March from February's 39.05%. The monthly inflation rate is seen edging up to some 3%, with forecasts ranging from 2.7% to 3.56%. It rose 2.27% month-over-month in February.
The lira dropped and briefly touched a record low of 42 against the U.S. dollar on March 19 after Imamoğlu's detention but later recovered most of those losses. It has since remained near 38 following the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye's (CBRT) steps to stabilize it.
Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek and CBRT Governor Fatih Karahan told investors on a call last week that they expect especially the April inflation reading to be somewhat higher due to the lira's depreciation, a participant said.
They see a 40% "pass-through" rate, which measures how much the depreciation lifts prices mostly via imports.
The volatility following Imamoğlu's arrest could lead to inflation ending the year a bit higher than previously expected, according to surveys.
Year-end inflation is seen at 29.75% based on the median forecast of nine respondents in the Reuters poll. That was up one percentage point from the previous poll.
The central bank expects inflation to end the year at 24% based on its February forecast.
Wall Street bank Morgan Stanley said the "front-loaded currency depreciation" will likely lift inflation readings mainly in April and May.
"Provided that FX pressures remain contained, and inflationary pressures start easing from June, the (central bank) may have room to restart cuts in June," it wrote.
Meanwhile, the domestic producer price index cooled to 25.21% in February on an annual basis and rose by 2.12% from January.
The central bank has initiated an easing cycle and cut its policy rate to 42.5% gradually in the past three scheduled meetings. Before that, since mid-2023, it raised the rate by 4,150 basis points to cool inflation in a shift to more conventional policymaking, after years of low rates aimed at fostering growth.
The next policy rate decision is set for April 17 when the bank could slow, pause or even reverse its easing cycle, analysts say. It held an unscheduled meeting on March 20 to hike the overnight borrowing rate 46%.
The bank has said further tightening measures would be considered if inflationary pressures persisted.
This Thursday will also see Trade Ministry unveil foreign trade statistics that will wrap up exporters' performance during the first quarter.
Outbound shipments in the first two months of 2025 rose by 2.1% compared to the previous year, while imports rose 6%, according to official data.
Trade Minister Ömer Bolat on Friday said exporters made over $2 billion (TL 76 billion) worth of daily shipments which made the second-highest figure on a daily basis.
Further key insights will come on April 10, when the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) discloses industrial production results for February.
January's index showed a 2.3% monthly decline but a 1.2% annual increase.
On April 14, the central bank will unveil the balance of payments statistics. The data showed Türkiye's current account balance registered a $3.8 billion deficit in January, a third straight shortfall.
Excluding gold and energy, the current account netted a surplus of $2.4 billion.
The government still expects the balance to follow a sustainable course throughout the year, Şimşek has said.
The current account is the most complete measure of trade because it includes not only goods and services but investment flows and other payments between Türkiye and the world.
Meanwhile, Şimşek is expected to give a speech at the International Economic Summit on April 17.
That current account balance will be followed by first-quarter budget figures. The January-February budget registered a TL 449.4 billion deficit. The budget showed a primary deficit, which excludes interest payments, of TL 146.6 billion, according to data.
TurkStat will release housing sales and the agricultural producer price index for March on April 16, followed by motor vehicle registration data on April 18.
April 22 marks the announcement of the consumer confidence index, while economic confidence index data for April will be shared on April 29.
March's economic confidence index rose by 1.6% to 100.8, the highest level since May 2023. The index reflects optimism when above 100 and pessimism when below 100.
Labor market insights will also arrive on April 29, with the release of March's unemployment statistics. February figures showed a 0.2 percentage point decline in the unemployment rate to 8.2%.
