The Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz will not be the same after the Middle East conflict ends, Türkiye's trade chief said on Friday, as countries accelerate efforts to diversify strategic supply chains for energy and other critical goods.
The Iran war, unleashed on Feb. 28 by Israel and the United States against Iran, has caused the biggest energy supply disruption ever after triggering a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, bottling up a fifth of global oil and gas supply.
"Countries will always consider alternative routes for their strategic supplies, vital energy sources, and other essential procurements, and will look to take action accordingly," Turkish Trade Minister Ömer Bolat told an event in Istanbul.
He said the "single route" approach in global trade has come to an end, adding that Türkiye's flexible logistics capacity enables it to adapt to different scenarios and secure flows.
Bolat said the consensus among analysts is that the Strait of Hormuz closure is having more destructive consequences for the global economy than previous crises.
He noted that around 25% of global oil, 20% of natural gas, and roughly one-third of fertilizer and petrochemical trade passed through the waterway before the war.
"As attacks on shipping began and Iran started using the strait as leverage, supply disruption fears suddenly increased and prices rose sharply," Bolat said.
He said higher prices in oil, gas and fertilizers were feeding into global inflation pressures.
Bolat said global trade growth was already slowing, with world goods trade expected to expand by only 1.9% this year from 4.6% in 2025 under baseline estimates, and potentially as low as 1.4% under a pessimistic scenario, according to the World Trade Organization.
He said Türkiye had managed to avoid supply shortages despite global volatility, citing government measures and pre-emptive procurement strategies.
"There has been no supply shortage in fuel, electricity, natural gas, fertilizers or petrochemical products," he said, adding that price increases reflected global market conditions rather than domestic shortages.
Bolat said Türkiye's exports to Gulf countries declined in March due to disruptions, falling by 35% to $1.5 billion, but noted that demand from other markets had increased as countries sought alternative suppliers.
"When those in Europe were unable to obtain products from the Far East or the Gulf, orders from there also began to increase," he said.
Bolat said regional transport corridors were being reshaped, pointing to alternative routes through Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Jordan, as well as ongoing efforts under the Development Road Project.
"One thing is clear: the Gulf and Hormuz will not be the same as before," he said.
Bolat recalled that the 10-year transit visa issue, which enabled Turkish truck drivers to pass through Saudi Arabia to the Gulf countries, has been resolved.
Since mid-April, transit routes have been operational both via Jordan and Saudi Arabia, and via Türkiye, Iraq and Saudi Arabia, he added.
He said Türkiye is implementing a multidimensional trade and transportation strategy through routes and projects, including the Zangezur Corridor, connecting Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan, the Development Road, the Middle Corridor, the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars Railway, the Habur and Syria transit lines, and new logistics routes linking the Gulf and Europe.
Bolat also highlighted Türkiye's role in European trade, noting that annual total trade with the European Union stood at $233 billion, with exports slightly exceeding imports.
The bloc receives more than 40% of Türkiye's exports. Türkiye is one of the EU's key partners in sectors such as automotive.
Bolat added that Türkiye was the EU's fifth-largest trading partner and one of the top three countries in the EU's free trade agreement network.
"Therefore, Türkiye is just as important for the EU as the EU is for Türkiye," he said.
