Annual inflation in Türkiye rose below expectations in April but still reached the highest level since late 2022, official figures showed Friday, amid strong rises in education, restaurant and hotel prices.
Consumer prices rose by 69.8% in the year to April, up from 68.5% in March, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) said.
Month-over-month, prices increased 3.18%, slightly up from 3.16% in March.
Commenting on the figures, Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek said April's month-over-month inflation was in line with expectations.
"After annual inflation reaches its peak in May, it will begin to decline sharply in line with our predictions," Şimşek said on social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter.
"Thus, the transitional period in the fight against inflation will end, and we will enter the disinflation process."
Annual inflation was expected to be 70.33% in April, according to a Reuters poll, with the rate seen falling to 43.5% by the end of 2024 as an aggressive yearlong monetary tightening cycle weighs.
According to the statistical authority, the biggest annual consumer price rise was in education, for which prices rose 103.86%, followed by restaurants and hotels at 95.82%. Food and nonalcoholic drinks prices were up 68.50%.
In January and February, inflation had climbed 6.7% and 4.53%, respectively, on a monthly basis, largely due to a big minimum wage hike and an array of new-year price updates.
The central bank has hiked rates by 3,650 basis points since June including a 500 basis-point rise in March due to deterioration in the inflation outlook.
It held rates steady last month, nodding to the lagged effects of tightening, and vowed to tighten further in the case of a significant deterioration in inflation.
Higher interest rates – which cool the economy by making it more expensive to borrow, thereby bearing down on spending – have contributed to bringing down inflation worldwide.
The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) sees inflation peaking around 73%-75% in May and starting its decline in the second half of the year, to reach 36% at end-2024.
To reassure the markets, Fatih Karahan, the governor of the CBRT, last month said the monetary authority would do “whatever it takes” to curb inflation.
The domestic producer price index was up 3.60% month-over-month in April for an annual rise of 55.66%, the data showed.
Şimşek said the stabilization in the economy, the decreasing current account deficit, reestablished budget discipline, strong increase in international capital inflows, and domestic portfolio preferences shifting toward the Turkish lira are supporting the fight against inflation.
He attributed all these to the government's medium-term economic program, unveiled last September to help tame inflation, rebuild foreign exchange reserves, and flip chronic current account and budget deficits to surpluses.
With disinflation, Şimşek said improvements in expectations will become even more apparent, further supporting the decline in inflation.
