Turkish manufacturers have seen a continued recovery in external demand conditions as the first quarter came to a close, official data showed on Tuesday.
But the outlook remains uncertain, hinging primarily on developments regarding U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariff regime.
The Manufacturing Export Climate Index rose to 51.5 in March, up from 51.1 in February, the Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ISO) said.
Readings above the neutral 50 threshold indicate an improvement in the export climate, while values below suggest deterioration. The latest figure marks the 15th consecutive month of improvement.
The uptick reflected a recovery in several of Türkiye’s key export markets, particularly in the Middle East, the chamber said.
Saudi Arabia led the region in production growth during March, with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) also showing strong momentum.
Economic activity in Kuwait also expanded, while Egypt, Lebanon, and Qatar showed signs of weakening. These six countries collectively represent around 7% of Türkiye’s manufacturing exports.
In Europe, Türkiye’s largest export market, Germany, posted its first production increase in 10 months. While modest, the growth is seen as an encouraging signal from the region.
The United Kingdom and the Netherlands also returned to expansion territory, while Italy, Spain, Poland, and Greece continued their upward trends. In contrast, France and Romania experienced further contraction.
Europe is among the hardest hit by tariffs Trump unleashed last week, which sent the global economy into a tailspin.
Trump has said the tariffs – a minimum of 10% for all imports, with targeted rates of up to 50% – would help the U.S. recapture an industrial base that he says has withered over decades of trade liberalization.
Türkiye is subject to the 10% baseline tariff, lower than many other countries, prompting government officials to point out the potential benefits of being a relatively cheaper source of goods.
The U.S., which accounts for 7% of Turkish manufacturing exports, maintained a robust performance last month, the ISO said.
March marked the 26th consecutive month of growth in production, and the expansion was the strongest so far in 2025.
However, other North American markets such as Canada and Mexico saw the steepest declines in production among all countries surveyed.
Elsewhere, economic activity in Russia slightly contracted after five months of growth.
India recorded the strongest non-Middle Eastern growth, with output climbing to a seven-month high. In Nigeria, manufacturing production saw its fastest rise since the beginning of the year.
"Economic activity expanded in most of Türkiye’s top 10 export markets in March. This development brought a degree of optimism to Turkish manufacturing exporters as the first quarter concluded,” said Andrew Harker, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
“However, some short-term uncertainty persists until the direction of U.S. trade policy and its global implications become clearer,” Harker added.
