An international team of researchers has warned that Arctic reindeer populations could decline by up to 80% by 2100 due to climate change, according to a study published on Wednesday.
Researchers used fossils, ancient DNA and computer models to "reconstruct and decipher" 21,000 years of population dynamics of Rangifer tarandus. The species is known as reindeer in Eurasia and as caribou in North America.
Lead author Elisabetta Canteri, from the University of Adelaide and University of Copenhagen, said that the study "reconstructed changes in the abundance and distribution" of the species, which dates back to the Ice Age, "at resolutions never done before, and we directly compared these to future predictions."
"This revealed that populations of reindeer have experienced major declines during periods of rapid climate warming, but the losses expected in the coming decades due to future climate change are likely to be even more severe than those in the past."
The scientists said that the species has already seen a decline in population of nearly two-thirds over the last three decades.
"Our forecasts show that these North American caribou populations are most at risk from climate warming, with declines of up to 80% likely by 2100," said research co-lead Damien Fordham, from the University of Adelaide.
Fordham called for a boost to investment in conservation, as well as wildlife management and for major cuts to greenhouse gas emissions to help the species persist.
"A reduction in tundra plant diversity resulting from the loss of reindeer and caribou will have many cascading effects, including reduction of carbon storage in Arctic soils," said Eric Post, from the University of California Davis, who contributed to the research.
"For thousands of years, the well-being of our own species has benefited directly from healthy reindeer and caribou populations. Now more than ever, we need to ensure their well-being in turn."
